For better or worse, Congress, NHTSA and others have asked for State Farm's Insurance Company's information on Toyota accident rates -- and particularly those which were above expected levels on a statistically significant basis. In gathering its documents, State Farm now finds it first notified NHTSA of problems in Toyota's in 2004, not 2007 as it had earlier thought. WRAPUP 1-US gov't was told of Toyota claims in 2004-insurer
This will be interesting as there was a model change in 2003. The first year of NHW20 sales, 107,897, versus NHW11 that would have had ~53,200 on the road. Knowing the month State Farm sent their report would be helpful. But this also suggests something else, something not good, was happening at the NHTSA. The time to address a safety concern is early, not later. If the NHTSA was not paying attention to this report, how many others were they not watching? Regardless, it is good to start pulling in insurance company records. Compared to the limited data available from FARS and GES data, insurance company records provide details covering both fatal and non-fatal accidents. Bob Wilson
I suspect that when all of the laundry gets exposed to the light of day, NHTSA will be found to have been under-resourced in a similar fashion to how FEMA was under-resourced. With FEMA, the under-resourcing was exposed by the response to Hurricane Katrina. NHTSA will be highlighted by the lack of a response to multiple auto manufacturer defects, most notably Toyota. I completely agree. Insurance company data on loss is much more objective and less open to challenge - there was a loss that an objective third party agreed was a loss. Just my 2 cents worth from the peanut gallery.
And if you owned one of the cars that is having the acceleration issue, the premiums would be even higher. Since the premiums are based on actual loss experience, it gets even harder to dismiss the charges. Losses are losses. That is why high school age male drivers are charged about a 25% higher premium than males over age 25 - there are more losses in the high school age group.
Although State Farm has 20% of the auto insurance market, their records are not necessarily going to be representative of all accidents, cars, drivers etc since they are choosy about who they write policies for (I know, it's good business for me!). It would be better to get records from the insurers for say 60% of American drivers. But that might take longer...
It depends on what you are attempting to prove. If you are trying to prove an acceleration issue for say, Camry cars, presuming a sufficient quantity of Camrys in the sample and enough of the cars suffer an acceleration-related loss, the results can be extrapolated to a larger population.
Another point of view: Best And Worst For Braking | Road Tests, Auto Features Begs the question, what is State Farm's ranking of cars by: brakes accelerators Bob Wilson
I am curious, the title says 'notified Toyota' but the body seems to say 'notified NHTSA', do insurance companies give car manufacturers feedback?
I beg to differ. If State Farm's average age for Camry owners is 10 years older or 10 years younger than the general population, the number of complaints of unintended acceleration is likely to be skewed. From the referrals of people State Farm sends me, I would say SF's average age for Camry owners is at least 10 years older than the general population. As we get older... What would really be interesting is to find out how many of these incidents involve people like my mother who drive with both feet. If she wasn't afraid to drive more than 10 miles from home I'd worry about it. She has stepped on the wrong pedal a couple of times. Fortunately, her version of "stepping on the pedal" normally takes her from 0 to 30 mph in about 30 seconds.
You make some excellent points. I'd offer the comments below. (Sorry ... I've not been known for brevity). Now, the detail. First, because State Farm insures the better risks and leaves the rest for other insurers, we can expect State Farm's accident data to better reflect the attributes of the car they were driving precisely because we're looking at good risks and therefore fewer cases of driver error. Second, while not widely known, the insurance industry in fact has taken your suggestion of pooling data. It's through the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety -- link is at IIHS-HLDI: Crash Testing & Highway Safety . The Institute describes itself thus: Through an affiliate of IIHS, The Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI), data for about 80% of cars on the road is reported and available to members. The data there are very extensive, and are really worth a look. Links below. The list of participating insurers is at: Member groups Third, State Farm can take its data and run calculations which also include data from other insurers. A comment here: State Farm can afford to do more intricate studies on the data than some other insurers due to its size (the cost per car insured of doing the studies becomes negligible). Fourth, the IIHS participates in a Federal Program called the: Safercar.gov. In addition to analyzing data, this program conducts testing -- roll-over, tire, safety ratings, and much more. The program also feeds data to NHTSA's Office of Defects Investigation, which among other things is involved in safety recalls etc.
Interesting, Toyota Prius:88 - average, all coverage 108 - average, collision 78 - better than average, property damage 70 - substantially better, comprehensive 78 - better than average, personal injury 84 - average, medical 84 - average, bodily injury http://www.iihs.org/research/hldi/composite_cls.aspx?y=2005-2007&cls=2&sz=2&sort=name Bob Wilson
Thanks Bob. So.. Prius has average or better than other "Small" cars. I wonder how it will do if it is categorized in mid-size.
I am curious how the results would look for some of the cars that are being recalled (or being investigated for potential recall)? Cars like the Camry or Corolla?
The EPA rates it as a mid-size car but the IIS is showing it in the "small car" group. I can't explain it either. Bob Wilson
Perhaps the folks over at IIS should try squeezing into some of the 'small' cars and stay squeezed into the small cars for say, an hour? Then try the same exercise in the Prius.... That might get the Prius rated as a 'large' car. There could also be a potential objection to being squeezed into one of the small cars as cruel and inhuman punishment.