For all those who think that to move to a PV solar grid environment, and who think that we have to go back to the stone age in order to address some of our climate change issues,, I present the following article: Will Distributed Solar Drive Utilities into Bankruptcy? | Renewable Energy News Article I think the author has a great grasp of both the economics and the social forces that are driving PV. At todays current prices PV solar is competitive at the retail level, and soon to be so at the wholesale level. The article speaks to the conundrum that (dumb) utilities face when the level of feed in from distributed solar gets bigger, and they begin to lose revenue. The reaction to raise prices will only further the decrease in revenue. The smart utilities (and utility regulators) realize that there are other solutions including time of day metering etc. A pretty interesting read for those that are the least bit interested in PV, and more importantly, those nay sayers who claim (falsely) that solar is not a viable option! Icarus
great article, have to keep voting for pols who are in favor. noticed you wrote gas instead of has in your first sentance. is there such a thing as a written freudian slip?
Thanks Icarus, interesting article. What do *you* think of the point that installation costs will drop 30+% ? Oh, and point me to good panels that cost $1.6/watt please. I have been figuring $2.6/watt. FWIW, I don't doubt that solar will take off, but I think most of it will be in solar farms at scales the utility companies are in the best position to take advantage of.
Sage, if you can get $2.6/watt, that's still better than what I paid just over 2 years ago. That's even after the 50% rebate from the local utility and the tax credit. I can't remember if that $1.6/watt included installation or just the panels (it was a few hours ago I read the article). I'd be surprised if the price came down that far in the near-term picture without some pretty hefty subsidies. Typically, you've got 3 streams from finished product to final installation that are all in the business of making a profit. At least, for me that's how it was. GE manufactured, solar company, electrician. I often wonder how much markup was at each point along the way. Granted, 2 years ago, it was still really getting moving so a lot of the smaller start-up businesses needed to re-coup some of their startup costs, too.
The utility companies in Michigan have it figured out. Their solution was to lobby our state government to enact protective laws, keeping them from having to deal with any large amounts of green energy. Problem solved. Tom
I make no predictions on future costs, except to say, that it is likely that grid power costs will go up over the live cycle of any Pv installtion! This is a reputable retailer that I have used in the past. That said, I would negotiate with local suppliers first to see if you can get close. Buying anything in quantity saves money. Solar Panels, PV Systems, Inverters | 98¢/W In the grid tie world, I consider anything under $5/watt installed to be the norm now days. Off grid, I still estimate ~$8/watt at a minimum depending on battery size. Icarus
if we cover enough of the earth with solar panels, will that lead to cooling which might offset some of the global warming?
Assuming your question is serious, it should be noted that Solar panels (either PV or hot water/hot air) don't make energy, they merely convert energy. The only potential climate issue might be the ability of moving that energy from one site to another, reducing net solar heat gain at the panel, and increasing it at the point of load. So to answer your question, in any practical sense there would be no net effect of "covering the earth" with solar panels. (I suppose there is some small reflective element at work as well, but my guess is that it would be too small to calculate in the real world.) Icarus
i am serious although completely clueless. i was thinking that the sun warms the earth and a solar panel intercepts that heat, so the earth below it is cooler due to the shade of he panels.
Yes, but the net heat on the surface of the planet is the same net/net. Consider this scenario. A garden hose left out in the sun will pick up enough heat to scald you if it is left out long enough. The heat in the hose is only heat that wouldn't be absorbed into either the earth or the air. Now, if this hose were a solar water heat collector, you would then transport that heat into some storage facility (like a tank) to use later. The heat is still all the same, net net. A PV (solar electric panel) will convert ~ 15% of the suns energy into electricity, the other ~85% is absorbed as heat, just as the surrounding ground or air (or roof) would. The electrical energy is then moved (through wires) and consumed with loads, giving back that same heat. There is no net gain or loss of heat with solar (with the possible minimal additional reflection that glass panels might provide). Hope that makes sense, Icarus
Good question - it's certainly possible. Installed PV prices are already 30% lower in Germany than they are here. A large part of this is due to economies of scale thanks to their FITs. One area is streamlining the local permitting process. Current systems require too much customization - systems need to be made more cookie-cutter. Those items combined with falling inverter and panel prices should easily result in 30% reduction in installed cost. Icarus pointed you to one - you certainly should be able to get high quality panels for under $2/watt if you shop around. True - though perhaps not quite as big as you think. Distributed Generation Makes Big Numbers | john-farrell-ilsr
Covering the earth with dark solar panels would have a massive effect on the globe because the albedo would be very different (ie much lower than it is now). Albedo definition putting solar panels on a very small percentage of the earth's surface is a good thing.
I appreciated Icarus' link, but so far as I can tell all the panels are Chinese sourced, and I am not even sure the companies have a domestic office. Since I plan to save money by not using a turn-key installer, I have to be confident of the panels. A guarantee that requires me to send defective panels to China is not going to be helpful. I am not bashing the Chinese panels per se, but I have to buy more QC and customer support than I think those panels carry. If I am wrong I would be delighted.
The link I provided is a reputable on shore retailer. They have offices in Ffa, AZ, CA as well as in the Caribbean. Some of the Pv panels they sell are from China, (as are those from most retailers) but they also carry some made in the US, Germany among others. The sad truth is, with the comodization of PV more and more manufacturing is going off shore, as it really isn't "high tech" anymore. Witness the move of Evergreen Solar from Mass to China in recent months. Full disclosure, I have bought from the linked company with good results, but I have no affiliation with them. There are other solar retailers who are better suited for DIYers because they are much more actively involved in DIY stuff, but you pay a higher price per watt for the overhead and expertise, just like anything else. A retailer who sells panels by the each is going to have to get more per watt than one who sells by the pallet or the container load. That is simple economics. Personally I would not hesitate to buy from my linked company as they have a good rep in solar circles. If one wishes a more personal experience I can provide some other good sources. Icarus
Just looking at that particular site and some of the brands available under $2/watt (I would personally shy away from the "Sun" branded panels - those are rebranded panels by Sunelec and tend to be blems and NOT UL listed): CanadianSolar, EvergreenSolar, Suntech are all some of the biggest PV manufacturers in the world. I believe those 3 are mostly made in China, but I know that Suntech is building a plant in AZ. If you're looking for a domestically made panel, I think some Sharp panels are made in the USA - Schott and Siliken also made panels in the USA. I don't think that QC is an issue with any UL listed PV module - the requirements to get that passed are quite tough - and the warranties on PV modules are basically the same. Now - if you need more support - you're going to have to find a vendor willing to do some handholding. Unlike Icarus I don't have any experience with sunelec or anyone else... I installed my PV system with the help of a friend who works in the industry.
