Peter Cox was largely responsible for raising the concern (about 2004) that Amazon T increases could be promptly and severely damaging to that large tropical forest area. Therefore I am happy to mention his latest in the journal Nature. Published online 3 days ago, which is slow for me to catch on There is more information now (er, some in the form of models) suggesting that CO2 fertilization benefits will outweigh T-increase-related problems. Too-brief summary: It probably won't get toasted. Those inclined to view this as a flip flop (or something like that) can have fun with it. But as usual, more information drives science towards more confident predictions, and in this case it is more confident + more happy. Here's your link: doi:10.1038/nature11882 None of this means that there were not severe Amazonian droughts in 2005 and 2010, but Cox et al. would be looking for a bounce back. BTW it is not my normal time to be awake, but it is Chinese New Year and the fireworks are loud. There is also a summary of this paper in Nature, by Randerson doi:10.1038/nature11949
The rate of forest clearance in Amazonas is heavily disputed; perhaps more than most of the public realizes. Read about 10 papers on the subject and watch certainty slip away... However, we might say that the rate peaked in the early 1990's and is now less. There are areas where forest clearance has increased, not slowed. Nowadays, the 'center of mass' of tropical deforestation is Indonesia. They are blowing everybody else away. Most of the land is planted in oil palm, which is a dual-use crop, biofuel and edible. I have been told that oil palm provides more $/acre than opium poppies. Amazing, but I don't know that it is published. Next big El Nino, it is not hard to predict that a lot of oil palm plantations will burn. Did last time around. And, Cox's model refinements are very much based on plant responses to the ENSO cycle. All of this stuff is linked to a degree that it is hard to describe or even comprehend.
heh,heh especially in Indonesia where trafficking in opium is punishable by death. Really I doubt that the palm oil is more profitable, but it is allowed in Indonesia that allows people to profit in farming and not trafficing unlike Afghanistan where many of those poppies come from. Part of the reason for all the palm oil is Europe's appetite for biofuel because "it's good for the environment".' Palm Oil Gains a Fourth Day as Exports Seen Rising on Zero Tax - Bloomberg
What the? Online store? Youse guys are confusing me most mightily. In this online store, people can buy palm oil or heroin; is it that you are saying? Me confused am. If ya'll dig into the first posted ref, a path to improve our understanding of terrestrial C vs. T and CO2 appears. This was my intention in posting. I am not just the purveyor of good news (when it bubbles up); I try to get y'all to think about things that may matter carbon-wise. It is not like we have all these things nailed down Really I thought that there would be more response about Cox changing his stripes, and that's why I offered a vaccination He may get hammered later though. More to say, but maybe not exactly here.
