Supporting: www.skepticalscience.com

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Sep 28, 2013.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    So I was busy reading "Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis" in 'Chapter 4.4 Earths Radiation Laws' and wanted to find details about the solar flux. A little Googling and I found:
    Global Warming and Climate Change skepticism examined



    Not only did it have the information I was seeking, I found a wealth of information. But what made me 'open up my wallet was finding what others had posted:

    There could be no better endorsement!
    Source: Paypal receipt

    Thanks!
    Bob Wilson
     
  2. drysider

    drysider Active Member

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    Good call, Bob. I'm in for $50.
     
  3. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    If one is looking for websites with 'tip jars' may I suggest

    Wood for Trees: Home

    Their major role is to assemble climate-related data sets in one place and provide easy-to use analytical and graphical tools. People 'on both sides of the aisle' use the data in different ways in support their own assertions. I see that as a sign of success.

    Certainly they could bring in more datasets, but that's where a 'heavy tipper' might bring influence. My personal suggestion would be about the medieval climate anomaly. There are many local chronologies (mostly tree based) showing different things and not easy to assemble.

    From reading several, my impression was that there were several hot periods that occurred at different times and places. But maybe that is not the most accurate reading. It would be a worthy challenge for wood for trees (or other) to clarify that.

    No wordpress for me today (it comes and goes...) so I am not able to explore whether there might be a sane explanation for such photoshopping.
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    A good site although it'll take a little time to understand how to use his 'filters.' In one respect, his collection of data pretty well confirms what even Spencer has conceded . . . the climate is growing warmer. What I didn't see were the corresponding data for radiant energy, aerosols, atmospheric gas distributions, and any other counter and supporting metrics. I like a broader view, not just temperature, as important as it is.

    I like scepticalscience because it includes a fairly extensive review of the mechanics, the physics behind global warming. I knew the basic physics and chemistry but lacked ties to planetary studies that tie them to global warning. Between the freshman level Climate Change Science: A Modern Sythesis and scepticalscience, I'm getting the details that complement my 40 year old, mechanical engineering studies.

    Bob Wilson

    Thanks, I needed another excuse:
    I'm already up to page 135 of the 486 page, Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis, Volume 1 - The Physical Climate by G. Thomas Farmer and John Cook, ISBN 978-94-007-5756-1. An undergraduate course book, I'm finding it is tying my engineering skills and knowledge to what has been going on in Climate Science. In effect, a survey course well worth the money spent.
    source: Paypal e-mail receipt

    BTW, I recently got a nice $700 oil royalty check . . . poetic justice.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I have to admit amusement that I bought a Prius for fuel economy and found the technology fascinating. Yet year after year, the halo "green" label had been used as an explanation for why anyone would buy a Prius. So the number of commercially available hybrids and EVs remained a niche market with a handful of serious contenders. But something changed this year, a tipping point.

    We're seeing Arctic, commercial shipping starting, a little more than 'demo' voyages. This is the third year and the Northeast passage is opening up in spite of "hair on fire" reports of Arctic surface ice increases. Heck, one bulk carrier even took the Northwest passage in spite of claims it was closed this year. So it makes sense to catch up on global warming, to understand how well established science and engineering connects with the current observations.

    The Arctic shipping routes are going to close in month. In the future, the duration will change from year-to-year. There will be cold years where few get through but every time they do, the shippers learn what works and doesn't. They are figuring out the puzzle and as longer shipping seasons interlace with Arctic ice melting, we are seeing the early predictions of global warming becoming an undeniable fact.

    Now that hybrids, serious hybrids, are taking off in just about all manufactures, "green" as a halo appears to finally beginning to evaporate. As evidence, the European manufacturers have recognized their diesel dreams and denial of petroleum price hikes are not working and finally broken through their anti-hybrid bias.

    We're at the beginning of the end of the climate warming, denier nonsense . . . and their desperation is showing.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    Well reasoned. I don't know how anyone can refute such eloquence.
     
  9. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    Oh good, I mainly inserted there to see if I was on your ignore list or not. But since we are chatting...

    Well I submit that it is just making economical sense for the manufactures to do so now. More people are seeking fuel efficient vehicles now largely due to the economy and the price of fuel. Obviously more people are thinking "green" whatever that means, but I think that is still a small influence. A person really has to give Mr. Yoda credit for stepping out on the proverbial limb fourteen/fifteenth years ago when he introduced the Prius.

    I suspect the Arctic has been open in the past and like glaciers, it will recede and advance in the future. End of the world... doubt it.

    Sides, there is a much more pressing issue for mankind and it is running away from the answer faster than it has even done in the past.
    Blessings!

    Hey C, long time no dueling, er chatting. Whaz up?
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    "Ignore" is like squelch on a CB radio. Sometimes it has to turned up but conditions change and it can be turned down. But thanks for the reminder as I found two on my list who have not posted since July. Perhaps they found another place to pester.
    I always pointed out my "green" interest is in keeping my "greenback Yankee dollar" in my wallet and not the gas station.
    I'm fairly calm about global warming as it doesn't even notice our little chats in this nook of the Internet. Heck, global warming has no interest in the "hot air' various members of our species babble spout. But an engineer by training and attitude, I like the study of heat engines and in the past, I've known many of the basic, "back of the envelope" facts:
    • Venus in run-away, CO{2} green house - hot enough to melt lead on the surface
    • Fossil fuel burning is rapidly returning us to paleo-era atmosphere
      • the bio-layer does not grow fast enough to fix the now free CO{2}
    • Random articles including the northern migration of tropical critters, plants, and pests
    I came to the Prius because I'm frugal and found an interesting mechanical marvel. Along the way, I noticed some chat about Global Warming which ordinarily, no sweat off my brow because the physics and chemistry of Global Warming works by natural laws. But then I noticed articles about Arctic shipping and remembered polar melting was one of the earliest predictions of Global Warming. Then Doug mentioned an undergraduate book, Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis, Volume 1 - The Physical Climate, by G. Thomas Farmer and John Cook that sounded like a good survey read. For example:
    • black body radiation - the Earth should be at -19C versus the observed +13C, a 32C difference due to the existing mix of atmospheric gasses. In effect, we survive on this planet because of existing Global Warming against the reality of space.
    • bore hole temperature measurements - something I was not aware of but upon reflection, what a great way to take out surface sampling errors.
    • I'm only at page 185 of 486 . . . more coming
    The problem with books and formal papers are they 'snapshot' what is known on the date a publication. We don't get an automatic update which is why Global Warming and Climate Change skepticism examined is such a good compliment to the book. I don't have time (or interest) to follow the latest research and paper. But this web site appears to continue the work, the baseline I'm getting from the book.

    Doug suggested my donation was put in a 'tipping jar' but I call it payment at today's magazine rack. I have no problem with paying for value and I've already decided to drop Consumer Reports. If others get a chance to read the web-site, no skin off my nose, as long as I can find the content.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Spider@9. Thanks for reminding me! I did see a new article recently (and lost it) with the idea that the arctic was ice-free most recently 800,000 years ago. Anyone else see that?

    Now, such things most often get re-interpreted as current human-dominated changes being rare in time. OK we got that, but let's look deeper.

    A valid concern about ice-free arctic is related to methane release from seafloor and yedoma soils. But ice free arctic 800,000 does not show evidence of that thing having happened (most luridly described as the clathrate gun). So that ice-free arctic episode did not release enough methane to 'send us to Venus'.

    We'd have to look elsewhere for an overwhelming negative associated with persistently low arctic ice. My interpretation only . If that article pops up again I'll letcha know, probably in the other thread.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Hi Doug,
    I found this relevant passage:
    Source: Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis, Volume 1 - The Physical Climate, G. Thomas Farmer, John Cook, Springer, New York, 2013, pp. 170.

    So did I pass the pop-quiz? <grins>

    Actually having ice cores going back 850,000 years means only ice at that particular location. The absence of other cores at other locations going back that far could be due to mechanisms such as glacial movement. There might have once been ice but it 'flowed to the sea.' Given the ice found on the moon, sunless craters, it might be just the core drilled into a valley where the sun never shined.

    We also know Arctic and Antarctic sea ice are subject to erosion from warmer ocean currents. So at best, this ice core would be a probe of a specific location and should not be used just based upon this one metric to project Arctic or Antarctic ice coverage.

    A more telling indicator would be the existence of tropical flora in the permafrost record. But I don't have any ready references . . . but I now know where to look. <grins>

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Tropical flora appear to have been very resilient to the previous climate envelope. Dang I thought I put those refs around here somewhere. It is another facet of my happy dance, that we are not (with certainty) trashing the planet by doubling CO2.

    The sad dance is that 7->8->9 billion people need a lot of things, and the current thing-delivery system may not be ideal in case T goes up and rain goes elsewhere.

    Our current system has been fabulous for at least a billion people and even better so for those on top. Whether it is the best attainable system for 21st century has not been demonstrated.
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    From what I can tell it is less likely 'trashed' into a Venus runaway as much as reverting to a dinosaur friendly climate. As for the human population density, first comes the great migration concurrent with the great starvation. Then as fossil fuels finally run out and CO{2} levels return to lower levels, 'the big chill.'

    It will be interesting to speculate about out how much of civilization remains.

    Bob Wilson
     
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I completely agree.

    I can't see how contributing to John Cook, who has no climate science back ground, but has the website because he is an evangelical christian and wants to spread the news of climate science (yes that is part of his bio), is any better than sending money to that tv preacher that says he is helping helping the poor.

    -U2 (blue sky)

    Just because someone lacks credentials doesn't mean they are wrong, and it is your money, but there is better charity.
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The book has two authors, if neither of them has earth-system science credentials, then there must have been a ghost writer for the science chapters.

    As before, as ever, I don't much care who teaches you (the generalized you) science. I just think that it merits learning. We could easily define evangelism broadly enough to include that.

    There is a lot more science now than centuries (even decades) ago. What has changed is the 'public delivery system'.

    More evangelism: we're gonna need that science, to bring the 'bottom billions' up a bit, and the keep the human enterprise humming along in the face of 'things'. Whether those things are caused by natural climate variation or forced climate changes doesn't bear on their existence.
     
  17. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I was talking about the owner of the skeptical science website John Cook, not the book. Cook has no climate credentials. I can not see how giving him money will advance the science. He does psychology research but is also an evangelical, and he said it was his faith that caused him to start the website People give to evangelical christens all the time though. Those are not exactly the credentials to push forth the best science. He and watts seem to have a rivalry that tries to drive people to both their sites, but WUWT is more popular. By all means if you enjoy the book buy it. I just don't see a reason to pay money to support the website when there are much better causes. Providing clean water in africa, protecting wild life habitat in indonesia, women's shelters in america, etc.

    I was not at all criticizing Bob liking the book. The other author G. Thomas Farmer appears to have the credentials and education necessary.

    From Amazon
     
  18. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    John Cooke was a failed cartoonist.
    Now hes a pseudo climate scientist.
    My only demand is that the truth is presented.
    I dont care if hes evangelical or not although Im not religious.
    But those here who ridiculef Roy Spencer for being Christian,had better say the same about Cooke.
    Or we will know you are full of bs.
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    An internet search for earth system science textbooks will present several options from which to choose. Not so many from the last few years, which is why I mentioned first one from 2013. Within which, may I add, one would find several quite informative color figures. Many of them were reprinted from other sources; some may have been prepared by the authors.
     
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  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The good thing about a book, it won't be turned off at midnight like many .gov web pages.

    Bob Wilson