California drought and snowpack

That's not going to change until this amplified ridge west/trough east (CONUS) long wave pattern breaks down, whenever that may be.

 

This is always going to be 'a thing' in Calif because it has very large inter-annual variation in water inputs, and very large water demand. The drought of (about) 1928-1937 seems to serve as the benchmark for comparison for long drought and 1977 for intense/short.

'Hard' data come from snowpack (as here), rain gauges, streamflow, and (since they were established) reservoir levels. None of those extend back really long. Before that you have anecdotal reports (like newspapers) and before that, tree rings. From what I have read (example here)

Summary of Floods and Droughts in the Southwestern States

The tree rings do not always agree well with the contemporaneous hydrology measurements. So, there's that.

We want to know how 'unusual' the current drought is, but the data are not ideal for the test. Potential attribution to climate changes and economic impacts are what the media clamps on to. One may or may not forgive hydrologists for 'fanning the flames', but in fact it is a chronically underfunded area. Streamflow measuring sites (They are relatively costly) are continually at risk of getting shut down. To me, this explains a lot.

Forest fires are not just about shortage of current rain; they have a lot to do with 'excess' rain the previous year. Because it is the dry grass and other bits that do a great job of spreading any ignition. It is not as much the dead wood that I gave love to on that other thread. Commercial foresters generally disagree with me about that, but what can I say? A big dead long is called '10,000-hour fuel' because that's how long it takes to dry down. Visit a drought-stricken forest and that is practically the only place you'll find moisture. That's why it makes spiffy habitat for all those critters. Everyone agrees, however, that a forest with a lot of wood debris is a difficult place for firefighters to move around.

Every few decades, Calif gets whopping floods, mostly recently in 1986 I think. Don't know if it has been studied which extreme has been the more costly. Anyway, a flood in the Colorado river basin would be welcomed at least for reservoir levels which are at present rather low.

Using hydrological extremes, either to argue that we are climate-doomed or that climate change is a big hoax, misses the point as far as I am concerned. We know that hydrological variability will continue, fair bet that it won't be smaller than in the historical record. So it makes more sense to look for the most cost-effective ways to adapt to both extremes.

 

I've visited California a few times, and am always struck by the sheer volume - sorry, I should say number - of people who live in a very dry climate. Long term, there's going to have to be some serious creativity around both concepts of 'using less' and 'getting more'. Are composting toilets being considered? Desalination plants on the Bay? Compared to some of the wild and crazy ideas I've heard over the years, like diverting Alaskan rivers to flow South through the Rocky Mountain Trench, utilising the area's abundant sunshine and the population's proximity to the coast sounds reasonable.

 

There were very few streamflow measuring sites, US or elsewhere, 100 years ago. Columbia (NY) drought atlases go back much longer and are based on tree rings. SW US has definitely had paleo megadroughts. Another one of those would present extreme challenges.

The century-scale, more the minor droughts show links to ENSO. This makes the current situation in Calif vexing, because ENSO is now stuck in neutral.

In S Calif, Orange County is treating some sewage water to a very high level and using it for groundwater recharge. Apparently the 'ick factor' is too large for direct return to human use. But if one visits the facility you can get a taste/ So I have read online.

Bob is right - much of Calif gets no rain after March, so that's the window.

 

California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say - San Jose Mercury News

 

I couldn't quite bear to read the readers' comments. but the SJMN article was very well done. Refers to Ed Cook's paleoclimatology, among others. Some are based on dating wood that has been preserved underwater (a favorite topic )

 

I would say hydro electric generation is a good way to measure california drought in terms of rain fall and snow pack.
California Hydroelectric Statistics & Data
bad droughts can be clearly seen in the data. The black outs coincided with drought



2012 hydrp was at 27,400 much higher than 25,005 in 2001 or 22,373 in 1992 but poor compared to 2006 48,431. I don't think 2013 has been calculated yet, but until we get down to 1986-1992 levels it looks much more cyclic 3 year drought today than caused by ghg. There were many droubt years pre 1983 on the left side of this graph.

Anouther explanation may be all the farming practices and population sucking down that water. The dust bowl was made worse by agricultural practices and I am sure the california practices have something to do with the lack of water. Since agriculture uses 80% of california water if we go back to a long drought something has to give.

 

Guess it's time to start building the trans-Oregon canal. Los Angeles needs the Columbia river water.

 

'Droughts' in the American Southwest have been so common that I'm not so sure they should be called droughts. Shouldn't we acknowledge that we settled the region during a wet period? Several previous civilizations appear to have done the same, then collapsed under circumstances seemingly related to the ending of those wet periods.

Considering that history of continual natural climate change prior to any modern anthropogenic climate change, I believe it is politically hazardous to link CA's current 'drought' to AGW. It seems there is a high likelihood that this problem would still happen even if AGW could be cured, or demonstrated to not exist.

I feel the same about Katrina-level flooding of NOLA. The area is naturally prone to flooding, we have accelerated the natural river delta subsidence and halted new soil deposition, and we have seriously damaged the protective barrier marshlands. And over time, every point along the coast should naturally get hit by occasional Cat-5 storms, much stronger than Katrina when it made landfall nearby (not a direct hit on NOLA).

Extreme weather has probably always existed, and we have nearly always been seriously unprepared for it. I believe that trying to link every such event to AGW (as numerous talking heads are prone to do), or using these events to bash the 'deniers' over the head, just helps to perpetuate the controversy and paralyze efforts to solutions.

 

Diverting the Columbia River to California will mean war.

 

We have a nice paleo climate here that says this short dry period in california, is short and shallow compared to historical norms, and some people climing its caused by ghg. Empirically then you would have to say that california drought is unlikely to be caused by ghg. The second tie in is california dry periods are tied to ENSO, at least the recent ones. If you can tie ENSO to ghg, and find that somehow this is causing this low rainfall, but didn't cause preindustrial drought, then maybe you have a point. Unfortunately no one seems to be able to do that. Empiraclly, a rain dance is more likely to make it rain in california, than AB32. Anyone that understands the science understands that.

I don't know if that fox thing is true or not, as I mainly get my fox news on sunday mornings or from the daly show. But say it is true. Why would falsely claiming this short and wet drought in california is caused by ghg, give any ballance?

 

Yes, denial has consequences. But so does severe overstatement.

I keep hearing numerous talking heads from other outlets link most of today's 'extreme' weather events specifically to the 'A' part of AGW / ACC. But most of these heralded 'extreme' events thus far are no worse than pre-AGW events recorded in my own personal memory between a quarter and a half century ago, and in the pictures and written records of my grandparents and their grandparents before that. And the archeologists and paleoclimatologists keep adding more to it.

If we could somehow magically but secretly cure AGW today, there would still be enough 'extreme' events to keep Chicken Little warmists busy sounding the alarms for the rest of their lives. But each time a branch of the warmists get caught in a fib, a branch of the deniers are handed another sliver of credibility. Then human confirmation biases greatly magnify those slivers.

Non-anthropogenic climate change is no picnic either, and we humans are habitually underprepared for everything.

 

While California has a drought,the UK is disappearing under water. We have had the wettest January on record after a very wet December. Now we are into February we have had continuous storms with heavy rain blowing across the country. An area of Somerset known as the "Levels" has been flooded for weeks putting farms and villages under water.

This has required evacuation of the villages and farms with live stock also having to be moved. The river Thames that flows through London has burst it,s banks over a large area west of London. Over the country many thousands of homes are flooded with many more under the risk of flooding as the waters continue to rise. A months worth of rain is predicted to fall in the next two days, and forecast suggest the same pattern of weather is likely to continue for weeks.

I live between two rivers "about 1.5 miles north and south" in a very rural area. I am fortunate living near the top of a hill means my home has not been flooded, but the only way in and out of my local village is by agricultural tractor or boat as the roads are all flooded under several feet of water.

Many rail lines have been washed away or the ballast under them removed by the water. Near London trains are now running under an ancient system where the driver carries a token to use a section of the track because electronic signaling systems have been flooded destroying them. Electric trains cannot run because the live rails are under water.

The government after a very slow start and fighting over who is to blame for the lack of foresight has now had 15 meetings of there emergency comity "Cobra" chaired by the prime minister, is beginning to get there finger out. Deploy troupes for filling sandbags, and rescuing people trapped in there homes.

If your thinking of visiting the UK bring your waders and take some water home with you..

John (Britprius)