The article didn't consider the super fast charging that VW proposed for their Porsche EV concept; 5 min or so charge time. I wonder how CARB will react if a couple of those get installed. The supposition for hydrogen to work, that the car consumer wants fast refill times, is relying on the future consumer and market to remain the same as it is now. That isn't going to be. As it is, most younger people don't have the same level of interest of getting a car, or even a license, as past generations did. Growing up on smart phones, plugging anything in daily isn't a foreign concept or seen as a chore to them. Then there is the likely hood that by the time FCEVs become affordable for the majority, automomous cars will start becoming part of the public road ways, if not sooner. The wireless charging to make robot EV cars work for fleets of car sharing networks is already established; there is already some SAE standards set for it. The premise that hydrogen FCEV will come to be because Toyota is backing it, and they were successful with the Prius, ignores a couple of basic facts. Hybrid cars as an idea have been around longer than the Prius, and hybrid cars aren't really a huge shift in progress as they appear. They are still ICE cars, that happen to use less fuel. Betting of hydrogen because Toyota is, becomes less of a sure thing in that light.
There are some fundamental flaws in the article. A big one is the cost/size of infrastructure needed to service FCVs vs EVs. The calculate the amount of public DC chargers to service the same number of cars as Hydrogen stations. However, 90% of miles put on EVs are charged at home. Or in other words, 90% of the infrastructure is already in place. As range increases, the rate of home charging will also increase.
Typical H2 advocacy article. EV technology and economics will not change at all over the next decade while major miracles will take place with fuel cells, H2 generation, H2 infrastructure, and H2 economics. Yawn.
That 90% is highly misleading, since the value comes from owners with easily accommodating homes. In other words, they are the low-hanging fruit. Upgrading homes in old neighborhoods is a major effort not taken into account. Some people just plain don't have a good setup available. Wires are hanging from old-school poles still and garages don't have physical room or electrical capacity to support a level-2 charger... not to mention, a second charger for the other car. As much as I desire plugs for all, that's just plain not realistic. For that matter, it doesn't even acknowledge those who live in condos or apartments. Obviously, we can overcome those shortcomings. It's going to take a heck of a lot longer than enthusiasts hope though. It doesn't address the backlash we'll get from the oil industry either. They're going to fight back hard, extremely hard. It wouldn't be pretty if it wasn't for hydrogen. That's a alternative fuel they can invest in, reroute their future drilling money to support for fuel-cell vehicles instead. After all, they have the resources already. It's an infrastructure adaptation they'll endorse long before embracing the idea of plugging in. We're going to see a lot of arguments against hydrogen in the upcoming years. Watch for those which don't take all the issues into account. Focusing on just efficiency and sighting the cost of fuel-stations is a red-flag that the big picture wasn't considered. There is no one-size-fits-all solution. EV and FCV will end up co-existing.
John, I realize at-home charging isn't easy for everyone. And I don't expect EVs to ever comprise 100% of the light vehicle fleet. I do expect them to go a lot further than the 3% market share hybrids have stalled out at. The 90% is current drivers. True, that may change in the future. However, if at home charging were a hard limit on EVs (which it isn't) that would still give you about 40% of the market, which is a very healthy market share. It is in no way misleading. It is an on the ground, current statistic. Most survey's I have seen actually put the number closer to 95%, however comparing the number of miles driven by the Tesla fleet to the number of miles charged via superchargers, puts the ratio closer to 90%, so that is what I went with.
The article brings in some new ideas. Basically made me think EV's have a limit and FCV has a limit, so I continue to see it more like ethanol whereas as we can mandate say 10% but getting to full use is still gasoline minus the mandates for the other things gov't wants to mandate.
Implicit context has never been a good idea. We've seen misleading emerge from that on a regular basis. It's easy to prevent too. Merged What does that mean? It seems to imply you don't think the hybrid market will continue to grow, despite the encouraging initial demand for RAV4 hybrid. From that, we need clarification what hybrid" means too. Chrysler considers their initial offering a "hybrid" even though it comes with a large battery & plug.
The tying of FCEVs to hydrogen is probably their greatest hurdle. Fuel cells that run on methanol do exist, and onboard reformers for the use of other liquid fuels are getting smaller. If these reach the point of being viable for a personal car, then we don't need the miracles, or really, just the piles of cash, for a hydrogen network.
All the details are there, although different sources may use different definitions which means we need to be observant. As for what my statement meant, I thought it was clear, let me try once more. I believe plug in, light duty vehicles, will gain a much higher market share than hybrids. By hybrids, I mean light duty vehicles that generate all of their electricity onboard (e.g. No plug). The RAV4 is off to a great start. But the hybrid market as a whole is stagnant (at best).
That is difficult to say. As a 'shoot from the hip' guess, I would say hybrids will never get more than 5% in the U.S. Plugins, I would guess, will reach 3% by 2020 and 5-10% by 2025.
It's somewhat of a double edge sword though, isn't it John? After all, "old neighborhoods" (and I've lived in a few) ... 100amp service / full usage breaker slots full/ screw in fuses / old carriage houses w/out any electricity ... etc. The lion's share of Americana ... folks living paycheck to paycheck ... apartments ... subsidized housing etc ... they're not going to be buying any 6 figure hydrogen cars (subsidized down to 'only' $50K) anyway ... nor are they going to be able to afford the 100 mile'er EV as a 2nd car ... and not want to use a 100 mile'er as a main car ... nor can they afford any of the upcoming 200 mile'er cars. So for now, due to economics, problem solves itself. .
3-5% may be around a natural hybrid sales rate. But we can't exclude the possibility that future CAFE standards might push up that number substantially. Manufactures may choose to subsidize their hybrid models or lean heavily on alternative fuel vehicles or some combination of both. If we look at the evolution of cars on the road over the decades, we can see a trickle down effect. The financially less well off buy used cars years after their manufacture. Some of these vehicles were once rather pricey when they were purchased new from their first owner. Look at all the old Bimmers and Mercedes on the roads... But even these old cars progressively get replaced with newer used vehicles. PHEVs and BEVs are relatively too new, so seeing them on the road having already passed through a couple hands is rare at this point. But as plug-ins gain more popularity, we will see it happening in the plug-in segment too.
We will see more hybridization due to CAFE. With the varying levels of hybridization, some buyers may not know that the car they are sitting in is a hybrid though. Take the old Malibu hybrid. When GM changed the system's name to eAssist, they dropped hybrid from marketing and promotional material. yet, those cars sold were counted as hybrids for those 3% to 5% sales. Depending on how where you put your hybrid-ICE dividing line, the Fords, Chevies and Kias with start/stop are hybrids. By the time CAFE really starts pushing hybridization of the fleet, the general public won't be making much of whether a car is a hybrid or not, and just see them all as cars.
