Atlantic hurricane season

Cyclones persisting in low latitudes get (ocean surface) heat unless they are sheared or land- (especially mountain-) crippled. Cyclones moved to high latitudes lose 'hot-floor' energy input but may spin even harder.

Where can be found a description of all this, pitched at the 'we hated learning about science' general public?

 

NE Caribbean islands now begin very bad times. I've suggested to folks in NE Puerto Rico that they will have big rain but only middling winds. We shall see about that.

Two more larger islands will get their effects before Irma turns towards Florida.

 

Null school low-level winds animation

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

 

In 4 or 5 more hours, winds in San Juan PR will begin to diminish. Peaking at 80 mph when the eyewall is 180; that's very lucky. Some leewards islands did worse. Storm retains its symmetry:

NWS radar image from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

Family portrait of 3 hurricanes:

North Atlantic - Infrared (NHC enhancement)

 

Unfortunately for Florida (east cost especially) there are few hurricane-model tracks that don't imply substantial damage risk:

Category 5 Irma Hits Leeward Islands at Peak Strength by Bob Henson | Category 6 | Weather Underground

 

Curious about global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). This was previously updated at Weatherbell by Ryan Maue. No longer. He has moved to Cato Institute.

Dr. Maue 'made his name' by publishing about a decrease in ACE in a prestigious journal. Turned out to be of short duration, but as we know, science is self correcting

Unclear whether such a convenient ACE repository will be presented elsewhere. Kerry Emanuel would know, but during such active hurricane season he might not wish to be bothered.

R (a statistical package) would be well suited to construct a 'script' that ingests standard-format files (like HURDAT) to calculate ACE or other useful cyclone analyses. Perhaps now there is impetus for development there.

 

Beating@187. do not know how this is handled. I suppose many things need to be 'open' prior to a scheduled launch. Maybe not enough time for buttoning up afterwards? Also these events are tourism magnets to some degree, which may not be what the space coast needs right now.

 

Ooh, that's an X-37B launch. Secret stuff like NROL launches. Maybe not a touristic at all. Don't know how that would affect a 'slip it in before a possibly massive hurricane' decision.

It's not like this device has anything really urgent to do on orbit. Right???

 

That's the beauty of R scripting. One can ingest HURDAT and calculate ACE IKE or TIKE for the whole shebang.

 

"peek at Korea". Ya don't say

That this one would be in a higher-inclination orbit might have been the tipoff.

 

Wrong to speak of Irma in the past tense, but it developed very high winds and large wind field without the typical ultra-low central pressure. This is an example of things that can be examined by grinding through HURDAT best tracks from all the basins.

Should stop going on about R scripting because I'm such a neophyte. Yet its enthusiasts heap praise for just such capabilities.

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Next job for Irma is to survive interactions with elevated terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. Only then will we know how much ACE (or TIKE) it may present to Florida. Less extensive high ground in Puerto Rico does not appear to have scraped off much energy.

 

With apologies for my emesis here, I remain very very concerned about Irma vs. Florida.

She will be diminished by land interactions as above. But (recently improved) modeling is becoming consistent about a long trip along Florida's entire east coast at Cat4/3 intensity. Such is rare or absent from detailed history. It would surely be unprecedented in terms of effects vs. populations and properties.

Florida evacuations have already begun. They will be incomplete. Properties remain at risk. At this moment we might be in awe of what Irma has already been and done, and fail to look forward.

Don't.

We are still focused on Harvey recovery. May distract from rest of Irma's story.

Don't let it.

Y'all might read

Bryan Norcross, hero of Hurricane Andrew: Florida is ‘not remotely prepared’ for the next one - The Washington Post

Yes, it is in WaPo. Yes, it promotes Norcross' book. But he has credibility in this matter.

One might hope that Harvey will finally be the story of 2017 Atlantic hurricanes, and Irma/Carib as secondary. I am concerned that 2017 may end up with Irma >> Harvey.

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Happily, Hurricane Jose (in trail) will probably just stir ocean waters. Hurricane Katia will bring typical little league problems to part of Mexico. But Irma might outdo Harvey, and together they'd make 2017 a year hard to forget.

 

"shelter quick enough". Read coverage at Spaceflightnow and form your own conclusions. There are only 2 X-37B units as far as we know. Pad-side sheltering of one of them would have no risk from 'cryos', but with explosive bolts and who knows what else. I would expect this matter to be handled very carefully, and not publicly.

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OK, that's it. If something new important arises about Hurricane Irma, I will start a new thread unless somebody else does so first.

 

Are there hurricane trends at decadal (~climate) scales?

Perhaps this can be best addressed with HURDAT reanalyses for N Atl basin because of longest (maybe firmest) data. NOAA and UNISYS host those data, from year AD 1851. Ending with 2016; 2017 is not yet finished with tropical cyclones.

These data have questioned because some storms may have been missed before satellite (we got it all) era. However, the North Atlantic has been full of ships since 1851 (also earlier) and few if any hurricanes could have been missed. As smaller, weaker tropical depressions might have been missed, I exclude them. I (and others more in the game than me) doubt that N Atl hurricanes have been missed.

With that in mind, see annual hurricanes (decadal smoothing) through time:

Overall increase includes interesting dips that do not match regional air-temperature trends. Some ocean cycles might? Main question is how hurricanes will go in future, and on what basis might we suppose that this overall increase could stop? Incomplete 2017 season has 6 hurricanes so far.

We also hear that in future climate, a larger fraction of hurricanes may become strong (Saffir-Simpson 4 or 5). That smoothed fraction has been:


Which broadly increases since 1910, but with a large decrease after 1960. Without some knowledge about causes for that, it would seem difficult to anticipate ‘high-end’ hurricane futures. This fraction for 2017 so far is 0.33 and it is not included in the final datum above.

All above has ‘whole-basin’ perspective without identifying which storm struck US economic interests.

These empirical graphs might lead towards better understanding. Until then, they can push back against (for example) odd claims that Atlantic hurricanes are dwindling. Such claims were odd even before the most recent two muscular 2017 storms.