My first thought is that if eye circulation is entirely over land (the central path), it dissipates more rapidly. Most wind energy deposits well south of Okeechobee. For west path, energy deposits on a longer stripe up west coast. Having eye partially offshore is great for longevity. Has actually been important for Irma persistence so far. That in addition to lower winds for Homeland, Miami, Palm Beach. Don't think storm surge differs as much between those paths. Wider forces, not the eye, affect movement of liquid water.
another part of the country where companies have relocated to, builders have been building as fast as possible, thousands have been retiring to, and immigrants have flocked to. and over time, hurricane forecasts flop and they all say, see? meteorologists have no idea what they are talking about.
Not happy calling 'flop', nor would be the folks who dedicate their lives to making forecasts. A hundred miles is a lot of error when energy gets concentrated in hurricane centers typically half that size. It is not (realistically) a lot when essential atmospheric data is simply unavailable at scales finer than 100 miles. Hurricane hunters do amazing stuff with an active fleet of 3 aircraft, focused on storms and their immediate environment. With a 20-times larger fleet they could fly the mesoscale. Providing forecasts that people say they want but won't pay for. I have looked at flight tracks of Gulfstream NOAA49 for just the last week. Amazing stuff. Wish they could tout their work more, but they are too busy doing it.
I really don't know how much storm surge forecasts changed with wind-track change. NOAA just posts current one (now through advisory 43). Did not find an archive. Maybe that makes sense because people could get misled by basing decisions on old graphics. People do get misled... Storm surge is a really challenging thing. Very dynamic; I guess more so than typical rain flooding. Nailing up plywood makes no difference (cf. winds). Supposed to be only very near coastal, but dang, Florida is flat.
One 'West Side Story' pertains to Okechobee. It drains (normally not much at all) through 4 canals to west. Miami Canal drains to...well you can guess. Oke will get rain, for sure, and has been recently emptied a bit to make room. But wind over water can create a seiche (sciency word) and slosh over top and into those western canals. This would add to Waterworld effects in Miami (etc.) It is also not what you would call clean water. If the system stays online you can see action here: USGS Current Conditions for USGS 02286400 MIAMI CANAL AT S-354 AND S-3 AT LAKE HARBOR, FLA I guarantee that most hurricane watchers will not be looking at the back door.
Hurricane recon flights now make several eyewall penetrations per flight. Such are never 'safe' and a few have gone completely wrong: Hurricane Hunters | Weather Underground
While doing this over the last couple of days, they've also been doing TV live shots and talking the media and public through what they do. Impressive and probably hoping the, ahem, current administration is also watching and may rethink their proposal to cut their funding to help fund the wall.
Weather Channel is cycling through old footage including about the 24 Miami construction cranes. Since there was not time to lower them, least somebody could have done would be to put videocameras on the jibs. Wheeeee!
While awaiting reporting of some tragedy I went to Naplesnews.com Because the town if not county is forecast to be all under storm surge. Learned of their local activity which may get new utility: Swamp Buggy Race | Naples Daily News Swamp buggy - Wikipedia
When the 1989 tornado ran along Airport Road in Huntsville, a bunch of 'good ole' boys' headed over in their jacked up, 4-wheelers ... which instantly had four flat tires. A tornado disassembles buildings by pulling out the boards with the nails and then beaks the boards into smaller pieces that are scattered about EVERYWHERE. Bob Wilson
Tampa Bay storm surge anticipated from 5 to 8 feet. Previous hurricanes (1848, 1921, 1946) in that area caused equal or greater storm surge. What differs is currently much higher density of construction. 1921 event is interesting to read about because Florida had a construction boom at the time (following railroads!) and there were efforts to, oh, let us say 'under-report' such unfortunate occurrences.
I don't think so. In the heart of the storm there likely is SO much rain in the air that any electrical buildup would just jump from one raindrop to another.
Living in Huntsville AL, north central, it looks almost boring: The prevailing rain/wind from Irma has to cross S. Carolina, western N. Carolina, and eastern Tennessee ... the southern end of the Appalachian mountains. The elevation will squeeze most of the water leaving us with pretty much just wind and low rates of rain. If it had come in around New Orleans, Huntsville would have been more at risk. Now, not so much. The sea surface temperatures show the western Gulf was cooled by Harvey. It may take a day or two to see the Irma cooling around Florida. As for more warm water, La Nina has pretty well cooled the eastern Pacific: Southern Mexico and Central America are still at risk for more storms. Then there was that 8.1 magnitude earthquake. Bob Wilson
i wouldn't call it a flop, but i would say they dodged a bullet. if anyone is mad that they had to leave, and their home is still intact, they are just not dealing with reality. however, my own brother is calling bs on the forecasters and vows to stay next time.
