In the interest of transparency, my model 3 delivery window was pushed from Jan -Mar to Apr - Jun. That is okay with me. In my opinion, the car is so fantastic that it is worth the wait. In reality, I really don't expect to get my car until sometime in August. As a relatively new car company, Tesla continues to struggle with the production ramp up with a new car that is in incredible demand.
Kinda wish Tesla would stop delivering all vehicles in the U.S. once they got to U.S. vehicle number 199,999, then hold off for about 6-12 months until the first day of a quarter when they can produce the Model 3 in large volume. They could sell to international markets in the meantime. Then when they come back on line in the U.S. for sales, a lot more customers would get the full and partial federal tax credits because they would be able to sell thousands more vehicles a month with manufacturing more up to speed.
(Most of) the current estimates will be contingent upon the automation hardware currently in Germany being transported, assembled, and activated next month: Tesla's Model 3 production targets are now in German hands - Roadshow
That strategy does indeed appear to be the plan! The reason I say that is because, while US delivery windows have been moved back by about three months, CANADIAN delivery window has been moved up by about the same amount. Elon is very aware of the tax credit expiration in the US and wants to extend it as long as possible. In fact, you could say the new delay in US deliveries is good news if you want to interpret it that way.
IIRC, a couple of high level folks involved in this part of the equation recently quit. Speculation quickly leaps to mind, we're they let go for not meeting goals, were they getting out before the production shat hits the fan (current events) or....? Unless they publicly break their silence (highly unlikely if they want to find another job), we'll never know.
how long after the ordering window began did you put in your deposit? As of yesterday, non-owners have begun getting their notices if permission to configure. That's very promising, as it means that all of the existing owners who want to configure have already inputted their orders.
I ordered on-line prior to the reveal, so I am still about 60/90 days out since the current invitations are going to non-owner line standers. I think there will be another glut of employee/owner configurations, who will go the the front of the line, when AWD is offered. I will defer when I get my invitation because I want the standard range model (I know, I may lose part of the tax credit)
the good news is - as of 2 days ago, non-owners are in the post configuration - build phase. Folks that were w/in the 1st few dozen that got in the doors (brick n mortar - stores) 1st hour upon opening the doors are now being told (after they configure), "expect delivery w/in 3 to 6 weeks" & "get your financing ready" etc. .
True, except that some who stood in line in the late morning have received invitations too! It's all good!
You wouldn't get the full range if it only cost about $5,000 (9k upgrade cost minus 4k you'd lose out on the tax credit)? I'm thinking at this point I'd probably rather have the short range, but if it only "costs" $5k for long range I'm definitely willing to pay that.
Long range version will cost me $9750 including tax in Cali. I will likely get a reduced $3750 tax credit by waiting for standard range version. The net for me is $6000. No, I am not going to spend $6000 on LR which is something I don't want or need or use. That does not make financial sense. For people who drive longer distances frequently, it might make sense to them, but not me.
I get your point, but I also worry about resale value if I get the short range version. With EV ranges getting longer and longer will anyone want a 220 mile range vehicle in 5-7 years (which could be closer to 200 mile range by then due to degradation, yes I understand Tesla degrades very slowly)? Yes, some will, but I have to think the buyer pool will be quite a bit smaller than what the long range would be. Factoring in stuff like that makes the calculation a bit more complicated.
Anybody buying a used electrical vehicle in 5-7 years would be replacing the battery, and they could opt for the larger one.
that's quite a generalization - considering there are a bunch of model S's now 5 & 6yrs old, & some already at a ¼million miles & more ... showing between 5% - 10% capacity loss. That means you'd still have a range of >230 miles. Saying "some" would be replacing the battery - is less a stretch, than saying, "anybody" would be replacing the battery. That's the difference though, between one plug-in or another. It turns on whether one is driving a Leaf vs Tesla .... and we drive both. .
Live and learn, having read that tesla was offering stations that switched out batteries "useful" for cross country driving, I assumed...So, the 3's battery isn't going to be plug and play but with difficulty can be changed, it also isn't going to be charged autonomously but only by plugging in, and yes, last but not least, tesla uses liquid cooling to extend the useful life of the batteries, the 3 of course will heat it's battery via the drive train, useful info.
We don't know if the 3 could work with Tesla's battery swapping, because Tesla closed their only swapping location due to lack of interest from car owners.
I understand your points. I am not trying to change your mind, we are just having a discussion. If you use your logic on degradation, the LR version will have a range of 280 miles in 5-7 years. Will that effect the resale value? I expect that newer model 3s in 5-7 years will have a range of somewhere between 400-500 miles. I am not concerned about resale because the 3SR will probably be the last car I own (I tend to keep my cars a long time). In 5-7 years there will be a lot more Superchargers - Tesla branded, VW settlement required, and third party. Range will become less of an issue. There will always be a YUGER buyer pool for the least expensive car (EV) available at the time. You should choose whatever makes the most sense to you right now based on driving style, average trip length, availability of 240 charging at home, and local winter temperatures. I just can't justify $6000 for something I will rarely if ever use in my specific situation. (I will defer my invitation to configure for some period of time to see what happens with the introduction of the SR model, AWD, FSD, SAS, white interior, software updates, etc. But my patience is not unlimited. I could pull the trigger on 3LRD option if that is the only option with SAS. )
