This Is How Big Oil Will Die

Oil isn't only used for personal transportation. Commercial use beyond just transport is an array of petroleum based products.

There's also the reality of product turnover. Buying a new camera no big deal. The purchase of a new vehicle is an entirely different matter. It is far more expensive and you don't replace anywhere near as often. The problem of where to plug in won't be overcome quickly either.

It will take a long time, but it will eventually happen.

 

Ironic?

 

was this written as a joke? for someone with a phd, he clearly has no clue about geopolitics.

 

...Or transportation.....energy infrastructure.....agriculture.....

 

Meanwhile in Puerto Rico, they're still burning gasoline to make electricity.

Yeah I don't think the guy is too far off on the what, but he's way off on the when.

 

agreed, the when is the bigger question mark. but he's so sure of his dates, i thought it was a joke.
comparing cars to cameras and computers doesn't really build a case either. politicians could have cared less about those industries.

 

I also believe his time frame is way way off. There is enough industrial and petrochemical demand to keep the crude oil supply chain in operation even if most of our cars promptly ditch their internal combustion engines.

 

Yes, but turning oil into stuff isn't as wasteful, or possibly harmful, as burning it.

 

Liiiiiike.....diesel?
Jet fuel?
Kerosene?

 

And tar, asphalt, plastics, resins, fabrics, fibers, ..

With increasing volumes of these, I have strong doubts that the newest pipelines will need to shut down and disassembled for scrap anytime soon. Though that might be a good idea for some older ones more prone to leaks.

 

Wiki says (currently) 84% of petroleum is used as fuel.

 

If wiki says it, it has to be true.

 

l think we can stipulate that the wikis are pretty close @ 80-percent.....and that's 80-percent of my point.

See any electric airplanes?
Trains?
Trucks?
Container ships?

It's hard to know for sure, since everything is political these days and everybody lies with everybody else's data but I'm thinking that less than half of the oil produced these days goes for gasoline....rather than diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, lubricants, plastics, resins, yada-yada.
There are going to be more cars on the road next year than there are this year....BUT more and more of them will require less fuel to operate....especially if solar continues to scale up.
This will require people in Big Oil to be more efficient as well.....like using pipelines instead of rail or ULCCs (tankers.)

 

The amount of gasoline from a barrel of crude, in the US, is less than half, but not by much.
"In 2016, refineries in the United States produced an average of about 20 gallons of motor gasoline and about 11 gallons of ultra-low sulfur distillate fuel oil (most of which is sold as diesel fuel and in several states as heating oil) from one 42-gallon barrel of crude oil."
How many gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel are made from one barrel of oil? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Of course that is an average, so refineries were making more gasoline per barrel at times.

Yes, we need to burn it now, but hopefully at some point in the future we won't need too, or at least only a small amount. Then renewable sources of fuel might be practical, but they likely won't be able to meet demand for the other stuff we make from crude.

So oil won't go away. We'll just use it mostly to make stuff in the future. Instead of burning it and releasing it into the air.

 

Key word:
"US"