West coast Floridians have already heard of Tropical Storm Fred. If not, the click machine is under performing! Wind-wise, models agree that graduation to Hurricane Fred is unlikely. Even so it seems to track offshore entire FL west coast. This gives maximum wind speed to this undergraduate. Backside winds are increased by storm forward motion, while frontside winds are decreased. Y'all got that in class, right? Drench-wise, S half of FL has high color: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1628735559 Hoping that all of Florida prepares for it. == Update I wrote the above yesterday but it did not post successfully. By today, TS Fred has become weaker and may not recover in time to have substantial effects FL and Gulf cost. Mountains of Hispanola put a lot of drag on cyclones and not all recover.
There's a saying in the military: “armchair generals study strategy, but professionals study logistics." This come from some of the spectacular move:fails that occurred during the Spanish American War. It even obliquely covers medicine and vaccines, since that dust-up was the last time that we lost more troops to disease than fightin. So.....It sorta works the same way with Hurricanes. Wind is the shiny bauble that draws the eye from the real crowd-pleaser of hurricanes, which is the wet stuff. Rain and Storm Surge. Hurricane Sandy is a decent example. It was the deadliest, the most destructive, and the strongest hurricane of the 2012 season but much of its mischief was caused late in life, during its post-tropical stage. Fred probably doesn't have the 'right stuff." or the 'wrong stuff"...depending on whether it causes you to sell commercials, buy from Home Depot...or you're using it in studies that begin with 2020-2021's more overused word: "unprecedented." Maybe Grace will be amazing. Maybe not. She's showing a bit of a right fade while still in the womb......but....El Fato sometimes plays tricks....
WInd and rain are related. If you have the tallest, darkest cumulonimbus cloud overhead, ready to dump, it contains less than 1 cm of rain (or hail) depth of dump potential. Yet we know sometimes rain will exceed that. How? By wind. updrafts of the cloud structure draw in nearby air which rises and cools. Then imported water can increase your local rainfall amount. At a warm-front boundary, warm moist air rises over denser cold air, and the moist air gets colder and loses ability to hold water. If this frontal boundary stays over you, and warm moist air keeps arriving, local rain keeps falling. Again, imported by wind. In a hurricane, higher winds mean more air (and its water) can get imported. If it sits over you for long enough, rain can reach 100 cm, which is like 100 'full' atmospheres of water. So, in all 3 examples, you can never exceed (probably rarely reach) 1 cm of rain without wind (air motion) delivering water from somewhere else. == A weak hurricane or tropical storm has less wind to bring rain to your location. The most effective ones (and TS Sandy was very effective) do so by being unusually large. Winds may be low but supply lines are very long.
Haiti was watered by TS Grace, following another large earthquake, following assassination of their President. If readers are curious about how to help, and sour on previous Red Cross actions there, here is a list: Haiti earthquake: How to help Haiti earthquake victims 2021 Other, better lists may well exist.
there's a collection at church every year for haiti, never gets any better though. interesting place, i feel bad for them. they need to become a us territory like puerto rico $$$$$ fred will be here tomorrow, and whoever comes next.
The rain in Spain falls mainly in the mountains. Don't learn your stuff from fictional movies. Made to be memorable, not accurate.
TS Henri might become an 'H' by landfall. Long Islanders are advised to secure their porch furniture. But seriously now folks, this ain't no 'Sandy' nor a '1938'. Might distract us from noticing H. Grace do more to Mexico second hit. Are there not now big inflatable plugs to keep NYC subways from flooding? Post-Sandy? Deploy the plugs.
shifted west, twice in the last 24 hours. still long island though, then ny/western ma. then right shift out and away?
Yep. Ida may be a real revenue generator. Especially for manufacturers and advertisers. Fortunately, if the track holds she'll wobble ashore as a strong Cat-2 in Bayou country as opposed to causing more 'forced urban renewal' in Houston or Nawluns. Houston once benefitted from 'Galveston Storm' c-1900. They didn't feel the need to name every single weather event back in the day. They just said..."a storm came." ...shame they didn't get more advanced warning. It remains the deadliest natural disaster and the worst hurricane in U.S. history. From 6,000 to 12,000 people died on Galveston Island and the mainland, and Galveston forever lost it's status as the 'biggest and best' in a state where that title is somewhat important..... 'unprecedented'.....
Naming probably came about once long term tracking of storms came about. Naming them after where they land was more difficult then. Galveston did have an advanced warning. It was coming from the Caribbean, and maybe Florida, but was discounted as 'those people can't know what they are talking about'.
