2023 Global Hurricanes and Typhoons

Comparing wind fields of 2022 Ian and 2023 Idalia


Apology for different sizes.

 

Hurricane numbers, intensity, and land interactions vary through time. Readers here have more interest in Florida than in in Typhoon Saola now near Hong Kong, modifying coastal environments there and northwards.

US Natl Hurricane Ctr has HURDAT, with Atlantic hurricane records since about year 1856. Within that are Florida landfalling hurricanes. Earlier records could be incomplete. But I assembled FL data in a brief effort. I aggregated Florida landfalling hurricane data in 20-year chunks, working backwards from 2023. I did not expect to see these results.



This analysis as it stands looks unpleasant. It could be improved by further examination of HURDAT (not the easiest nut to crack). There are many ‘real’ hurricane experts with emails, who might be interested in this.

History before 1856 is at least partially ‘behind the veil’. Sorry.

Will the next chunk (years 2024 to 2043) be higher, flat or lower? Sorry, can’t tell you that either. Some will suggest a climate-change linkage and they are not necessarily wrong to do so.

But more fundamentally, one may wonder about the overall wisdom of extensive human activities in places (like Florida) that audaciously protrude into hurricane zones. The earth’s ocean heat engines operate at much-larger-than-human scales. Whether or not they get tickled by a few more watts trapped by a little more CO2.

To repeat myself, I was shocked by this. Needs confirmation.

 

For any watchers of Typhoon Saola, it is now forecast to go southwest along China cost and wander around Hainan island for a while. This one's track predictions have been all over the place. Lots of TV coverage (for me but not for thee)

 

Modeled to recurve

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_geps_latest.png

With some models not agreeing.

 

The tropical tidbits link is self updating so no need to repeat it here.

One version which recurves late and little shows Cape Cod getting some action. But most versions do not.

Our next contestant is Margot which will recurve in an area even further eastward. Not a landfaller in Americas.

 

May your wishes not sink a thousand ships in the Atlantic, dealing with what you wished away/.

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Since they will remain offshore and struggle to bait clicks, let's talk about something else. Cape Cod was named for a fish whose populations crashed 1988 and thenceforth (cod are now being sea-farmed). I propose renaming it to Cape Extirpation.

It's kinda like California having grizzly bear on state flag etc. Last one living in that state was shot in 1922.

 

Yeah that's a bait-and-switch flimflam thingamabob. Scrod is a deboned presentation of any whitefish. Haddock, or cod (if'n you can find one), pollack or hake. Maybe others that find themselves inside a net looking out.

 

In a few days, N Atlantic fishing boats may be leaving the scrod and lobsters alone for a while.

H -> TS Lee will have a few days to unwind, but still carrying a lot of energy.

Remember Fiona in Nova Scotia in 2022? Probably not that bad.