More interesting than the steady rain of Starlinks, as they are not built to ‘take it’: https://aerospace.org/reentries/6073 Kosmos-482 included a big piece intended to survive re entry through Venus’ notably thick atmosphere. If the heat shield etc. are not damaged, our 1/90th atmosphere will not do much. In that regard I was not much impressed by a quote from https://www.npr.org/2025/05/09/nx-s1-5389763/soviet-era-spacecraft-to-crash-back-to-earth Namely “"McDowell says it's not clear whether or not the capsule will disintegrate in the Earth's atmosphere. When it was launched, it was equipped with a heat shield that was designed to withstand the nearly 900 degree Fahrenheit temperatures of Venus. "If you can survive Venus, you can absolutely survive Earth," It is not planets’ different surface temperatures that matter here. It is the ride in. As always it is more likely to splash than thud but somebody ought to do the simple calculation of sea and land under the last few orbits as shown on aerospace.org. I have not seen that ever done. While not wishing ill on New Zealand’s North Islanders, that is an interesting target because of smallness. OTOH a thud in Russia would satisfy the ‘Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesars’ angle.
On July 6, 2018, astronomer, historian of cosmonautics, and author of a book about Soviet missions to Venus Pavel Shubin reported that the unsuccessfully launched Soviet station to Venus, after half a century of wandering in space, will return to Earth and fall on it in the coming years. "The Cosmos-482 station will return to us in the next four to seven years," Shubin said. According to him, after the launch, the station, together with the booster block, remained in orbit with parameters of 220 by 9.8 thousand kilometers, and over the past half century, it has lost about 7.4 thousand kilometers, reducing the apogee (the highest point of the orbit) to 2.4 thousand kilometers. Shubin analyzed data on the orbit of the spacecraft, as well as the state of the Earth's atmosphere, and found out that in the near future, the decrease in the altitude of the station's orbit will only accelerate. "As it approaches the Earth, the station's orbital period decreases, and it enters the atmosphere more and more often when passing the perigee, which causes a faster drop in the apogee," the expert said. According to the graph he constructed, the station will fall to Earth approximately in 2023-2025, but it is difficult to determine exactly, since its orientation is unknown. At the same time, at least 500 kilograms of metal can reach the planet's surface - this is the mass of the descent vehicle. The transfer station weighs almost 700 kilograms more, plus the weight of the booster block. "When the station enters the Earth's atmosphere, the conditions will be much milder. As a result, the vehicle is guaranteed to reach the Earth's surface. Moreover, even if it sinks, it will be able to withstand the water pressure at a depth of one kilometer," the expert explained. According to him, it is not yet clear where the descent vehicle might land, but it will happen between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. "It is very interesting to find it. In addition to the obvious historical and archaeological interest, there is also scientific interest. A device has not yet returned to Earth after being in space for half a century. It is very interesting to see how such a long flight affected the materials in the launched device," Shubin noted. The Earth's surface is spinning like a roulette wheel, and the spacecraft will stop its path like a ball in this roulette wheel. Place your bets, gentlemen!
My homeowner's policy does promise me some kind of coverage for damage from falling spacecraft (though it is careful to exclude coverage for damage to falling spacecraft). I'm kind of thinking with 500 kg there might not be much left for the claims adjuster to look at.
