Next decade 'may see no warming'

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by TimBikes, May 1, 2008.

  1. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    You shouldn't respect Pielke. Only his published work, if any. I urge you to look at the references he lists and you'll see they conclude nothing like what he is arguing. Only small, locally applicable observations that have nothing to do with global temperature.
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    If we have a half-way benign future, then Pielke may be a most interesting climate scientist to study (in a harsh future we will not have that luxury). His original ojection to a pure focus on CO2 made sense when the models did a poor job with aerosols and clouds at different levels. Now with improvements in those models, he is left with less to say, and apparently responds by saying it louder.

    Pielke's suggestions that we should attend to how previous extreme events have affected people and ecosystems remains as valid as ever.
     
  3. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    I can just as easily point you to blogs that dispute Pielke. We can argue this ad nausium.

    I certainly don't disagree that the GCMs are flawed and carry very large uncertainties, and for a number of reasons. Long term predictions of such a complex system are inherently difficult and subject to unpredictable natural events and human responses (or non-responses as the case may be).

    But it's really simple when it comes right down to it, just looking that the temperature graphs from the past century. It's alarming; it's anthropogenic; it's causing mass extinctions. And we're (as a nation) doing all the wrong things in response. And throughout the next half-century, regardless of climate issues, we will be forced to switch to alternative sources of energy. Our entire infrastructure is dependent on oil. We should be using the cheap energy we have now to help transform the infrastructure, while it's still cheap. (NOT to liquid coal.) And the population continues to grow, further compounding all aspects of the problem. We are in an unsustainable condition, and it's time to stop ignoring it.
     
  4. F8L

    F8L Protecting Habitat & AG Lands

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    You know I'm generally in agreement with you but I'd recommend being more careful about blaming recent climate change for mass extinctions. I believe the majority of recent extinctions can be explained through habitat destruction, overharvest and pollution. Climate change will definately have an effect and one could say it already is but I wouldn't label it a cause for mass extinction yet. Notice I said yet. :)
     
  5. dragonfly

    dragonfly New Member

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    Ok with me. :)
     
  6. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    Well, Pielke co-authored one of the papers, so I think he knows what it says! ;)

    Regardless, as I understand him, he is arguing that the temperature data used in the Rahmstorf analysis is upwardly biased. As you note, the papers do discuss to local observations - but the larger point is that inconsistencies / data collection problems with the local measurements are in turn resulting in an overstated global temperature. This is not a novel concept and has been extremely well documented here.
     
  7. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    My comments, in CAPS, above.

    One other point, as F8L notes, habitat loss is a big concern. I think we would be better served spending $ on habitat preservation than endlessly chasing the CO2 ghost. I am fine with transitioning quickly from fossil fuels - there are enough reasons without considering AGW.

    But none of this persuades me that there is a compelling case that we are going to be doomed by catastrophic global warming. Worst case, we are looking at a degree or two increase in globally averaged temps for a doubling of CO2.

    During the last century CO2 went from ~280 to ~380 and we had 0.6 C of temperature increase. Even if most of it was attributable to CO2 (unlikely, since at least 1/2 of the rise occurred prior to 1940), I am not at all persuaded that that another 100-150 ppm increase in CO2 is going to lead to a temperature increase of much greater amount than what we have already seen -- and projections of 4-6 degrees C or more in the way of increases are IMO, completely unsupported by the evidence.
     
  8. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

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    I'm not sure how Pielke is saying anything "louder" than the climate alarmists.

    Regardless, according to the IPCC, there is still a "low" level of understanding of the impact of aerosols and the projected range of effects from aerosols is shown on the link to be large enough that it alone could more than offset the entire radiative forcing effect of CO2.

    Additionally, as Roy Spencer has noted in Potential Biases in Feedback Diagnosis from Observational Data: A Simple Model Description (accepted for publication in Journal of Climate), "...daily noise in the Earth's cloud cover amount can cause feedback estimates from observational data to be biased in the positive direction, making the climate system look more sensitive to manmade greenhouse gas emissions than it really is."