Russia withholds natural gas from Europe and others

The EU will side with Russia, and turn their backs on the Ukraine. There is historical evidence of this. Of course, Russia would *never* do anything bad, right?

Holodomor 1933

WRONG

Even the United States supported this genocide. A reporter at the New York Times, Walter Duranty, wrote lies to disprove the genocide, and for his efforts received a Pulitzer Prize

Walter Duranty

You are absolutely correct that energy independence is of vital security concern. Unfortunately, now that the price of oil appears to have collapsed, this idea is the furtherst thing from the Average Amercian's mind

 

The way I understand it is, the Ukraine hasn't paid for the gas they already recieved yet, that is why they are being cut off.

Is Russia supposed to give it away for free?

Moral of this story (and others), Pay Your damn bills.

 

From what I've read, 80% of the natural gas that Gazprom sends to the EU, transits the Ukraine. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, all the former Soviet states had debt issues with Mamma Russia, and the rest of the world

There has never been a satisfactory agreement between the Ukraine and Russia/Gazprom, regarding what is "fair" for transit costs. At various times, actual payments were sent to Ukraine, at other times, Gazprom instead allocated a certain amount of natural gas as "payment"

This is a complicated issue. However, Russia most certainly is NOT "giving away" the natural gas. For 2005, Ukraine is reported to have consummed 80 billion cubic metres of natural gas: 20 bcm was the Ukraines own production, 36 purchased from Turkmenistan, 17 bcm from Gazprom as "payment" for the pipelines transiting the Ukraine, and 7 bcm purchased from Gazprom

The issue hangs on transit reimbursement, and what appears to be Gazprom almost daily changing what it charges for natural gas. The Russians are *not* innocent in this matter, but neither are the Ukrainians

 

The UK doesn't buy any gas from Russia as far as I'm aware, but I've no doubt that speculators will use this as an excuse to push the price up on the futures market.

The market data history makes interesting viewing. Go to this reports page and select Indices, then UK Natural Gas under Report. The September shock was down to, or at least attributed to, an announcement about a leaky pipeline in Norway. According to this press release, the field that the pipeline serves produces 22.5 million cubic metres of gas per day. The CIA World Factbook states that Norway produces 92.6 billion cubic metres per year, which is around 253 million per day, so this field supplied 8.8% of Norway's production. What we don't know is whether more could be extracted from other fields to cover this loss of production.

There is no real reason for the price of gas to have been higher in 2008 than in 2007. The last winter increases were also supposedly due to Russian unrest.

 

The EU needs to install more Solar thermal water heating and follow Norway's model of heating buildings with sewer water. I know that biogas is rapidly gaining attention there as a hedge against Russian NG, but it probably won't be enough without even more investment in alternatives and efficiency tech.

 

How about not living where it's freezing.

 

Then you'll just need the NG to run AC units.

 

Solar thermal could make a real dent in the fuel required to heat living space.

Check out this installation in Whitehorse, Yukon: http://www.solarthermal.com/Gallery/Pages/Gold_Rush_YT.pdf

 

Doesn't matter where you live, even a frozen-cold place like mine (-34 C this morning), there is always opportunity to dramatically reduce energy consumption

For some reason, the knuckle-dragging crowd seems to think this is "gay," or "tree hugging," or whatever

No, it's strictly a matter of tactical and strategic importance to not be dependant on another country to meet your energy - or your spending habit - needs

 

I've never understood that. I think more and more folks are coming around to the national security POV on this. It's so bloody obvious and it's easier to grasp than the environmental angle (I think it taps into fear more).

 

genius idea.

are you suggesting we abandon the northern US and resettle below the mason dixon line?

 

this is an opening shot by putin.

i hope obama is up for this one,,,, as someone said the EU will be all for putin reannexing the ukraine,,, will obama go along and allow it?

i would fast track them into NATO and georgia too.

putin coming out of retirement scares me.... and the fact he is going up against a rookie is double frightening.

 

Russia's flexing their muscles because they're scared. The complete collapse of energy commodities prices have put them and their fellow petro-dictators in a bind. Russia has nothing going for it but commodities exports. A poor Russia is a humble Russia. That is precisely why we need to make NG and oil obsolete. The higher the price of oil/gas the less freedom there is in the world.

 

Seems I recall Russia promising the EU that the dispute with the Ukraine would *not* impact NG shipments to the EU.

Yeah, right

I agree that the EU and NATO has to allow Georgia and the Ukraine. Unfortunately, I personally believe that the EU member countries will allow Georgia and Ukraine to become sacrificial lambs to ensure "stable" NG supplies

I rather doubt anybody will care if Russian tanks roar through Georgia and Ukraine over issues like this. Oh wait, that already happened in Georgia, didn't it?

 

i will personally disagree. russia is not scared. and there is nothing worse than backing a bear into a corner - even a financial one. we should never underestimate our advesary(s).

putin is a genius. he has tons of experience - and experience where it counts. it is i believe an illusion to think that russia/putin will be hamstringed by money - they have a pretty insulated system in place if it comes down to that. you should also consider the natural animosity that exists between the ukraine and russia,,, like the one that exists between russia and georgia.

prices of oil and gas do not matter,,, the only thing that matters ultimately,,, who has it and who controlls their transportation and delivery. this downturn in demand is temporary.... the control of it is permanent.

what better way to fix a recession than to start a war,,, and at the same time satisfy nationalistic desires,,, and at the same time increase your control over natural resources like gas and oil????

putin is going to play this card,,, no doubt about it,,,, his turning off of the gas was a warning shot aimed directly at the EU ---- message ---- do not interfere with what i am about to do,,,, if you do,,,, make sure you can replace your requirements for gas and oil from somewhere else.

this will be one of the first real tests of obama and what he does,,,, a HUGE test... does he support freedom for all and defend the ukraine -- in spite of NO aid or assistance in any form from the EU or does he cave. it will set the parameters of future moves by putin, iran, noko, vasquez, etc etc... --- i am not going to touch the economic impacts it will have on us too...

one of obama's first moves should be to force NATO to fast track the ukraine (and Georgia) in an attempt to block putins next move.

 

But fighting wars costs money... lots of money. All the oil and gas in the world is worthless if nobody's buying. Putin is a petro-dictator. His moves will be predicable because his interests are obvious. Remember, cheap oil, not Reagan brought down the Soviet Union... more specifically, expensive oil, followed by really cheap oil. The lesson is obvious... make oil and gas permanently cheap by destroying the demand for it. If we really want to convince the energy states of the world to play by our rules then we have to make energy cheap and, more importantly, widely available. That means we need to invest massively in renewable energy technology so that imbalances in the availability of energy are erased. We have a massive interest in making this happen. It's in our own best interest. Not only will we be creating massive new markets, but we'll be empowering people all over the world to take control of their own lives and standard of living in a much more sustainable fashion. That HAS to be the goal. The Putins (i.e petro-dictators, not all dickheads... that's asking too much) of the world will recede into history.