Is it going to become the Priusaurus?

In four or five years we may have more EVs, but don't expect the entire landscape to shift that quickly. It would be great if it did, but it won't happen that fast.

Tom

 

I sincerely doubt that the electric vehicle will take over. IF you look at the electric grid it may not handle the extra demand for power. Especially in the summer when we are within a few percent of generating capacity.

Others may dream of fleets of electric cars but to me they are a nightmare coming. Imagine this - "Ten thousand electric cars in the city of Chicago pull into the recharging stations for a quick refill at lunch time. If is August and the temperature is approaching 100 degrees, air conditioners are humming along and now we have a blackout." So dream on about an electric car society.

Unless every and I do mean every electric car owner has the foresight to charge their cars at night and not go far enough to require a recharge then the system is probably doomed to failure.

What killed electric cars back in the early 1900's? Charge times and the failure to remember to charge them. Not the batteries nor the price of the cars. It was a human failure to remember what to do to make the car get up and go when needed.

The Prius is not about to go away, everything is full automatic and only bound to get better. PHEV is the way to fly, if you forget to recharge you are not found on the road with a dead battery.

 

The Prius will evolve into a range of PHEV's in fairly short order, leaving the original hybrids looking old indeed. It is the price of progress.

 

Perceived obsolescence is a powerful marketing tool. It's a great idea for Toyota to continue adding newer/better technology to their cars so people will continue to buy the new ones. If your car seems obsolete to you in 5 years, just remember how obsolete a Chevy Impala bought this year will seem in 5 years.

Electric cars are going to be plagued by range issues for a while yet, the market for a long-range car like the Prius will be there for a long time.

I am hoping to be able to upgrade the battery after this one wears out (but if the comments on Priuschat come true, I'll be waiting a really long time for that to happen!). Who knows, in 5 years we might be able to install a better battery, flash the computer with some new software, and and have a car that runs on electricity alone for city commutes.

 

I love the idea of a PHEV, but none of the apartment buildings / condos that I have lived in have electricity in the parkade (in Toronto & Montreal, maybe Edmonton has some). The PHEV can't completely take over the hybrid market until these parking spots are electrified and metered. Even the newest 'green' condos I have looked into don't offer electrified parking for your PHEV or EV

 

drd12, charging spots and PHEV's is something of chicken and egg problem. But I think it will resolve itself quickly when affordable PHEV's come to market because it just won't be that expensive to stick a post with a meter into the ground.

Actually, I think business will fall over itself getting into the action of providing charging stations.

 

Exactly. There is no shortage of gas stations at the moment. The same thing will happen with EV when the time comes.

Tom

 

Even if there was an EV available when I went car shopping, the lack of a plug where I live would have been a major problem. I even asked one of the big condo developers about plugs in their new parkades and they have no plans to start installing them. And I think there is a real false economy to moving out of the city center and commuting so I can plug in at a house.

The previous post made me think of a city like Toronto minus the gas-diesel auto traffic. No revving cars or diesel fumes, small electric cars and bicycles everywhere. Some of the roads could be converted to grassy lanes.

Imagine!

 

I'm a simple kind of guy, but it doesn't take a genius to realize that in the context of foreign oil and global warming, a PHEV fleet is a no-brainer.

Harder to know which will come first to spur adoption: $10/gallon fuel, or 20 mile range $25K cars.

 

That is a 20 year old fantasy of mine. Never grows old.

 

My Prius has always been to me an excellent vehicle but truly a stop gap---until a viable, medium range electric vehicle becomes available at a reasonable cost....
I always hoped that it would be superceded in my garage by a viable plug in.
Froley

 

Bird in hand vs. two in the bush:

Our computer ownership history:

• 1984 - 128k Mac, 16MHz, 68000
• 1989 - PC luggable
• 1990 - VAX 730
• 1992 - PowerBook 140
• 1998 - G3 Mac Powerbook
• 2004 - PowerBook G4
• 2008 - MacBook White, 2.4 GHz Pentium

Technology is not static and what we have today will soon enough be dated. Compared to what we had before, what is available today is brilliant. But today I drive a 2003 NHW11 Prius and get good mileage, 52 MPG, that is jaw dropping to non-Prius owners at work. Still, I plan to buy a 2010 Prius and don't feel the slightest concern about the subsequent vehicle.

There is a lot of promising technology announced but on a small percentage ever turns into real products. Sad to say, often it first shows up in marginal products only to be succeeded by something much better. We're a clever species compared to all the rest but we still need experience for the 'lessons learned' and the next generation.

So enjoy the car you have today. There will be something better in the future but that is a long, long way from today. When the future gets here, well there you are. Deal with it.

GOOD LUCK!
Bob Wilson

<OOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmm....>

 

You think your Prius might become Priustoric?

 

What will the non-hybrid cars become then? Prehistoric fossils? Maybe they will become fossil oil.

 

When the wheels fall off, the car-carcass will be hauled away and become feed stock for new batteries, motors and steel. My vehicles work hard.

Bob Wilson

 

Priasaurus? interesting thought... and anything is possible

but did people forget the Model T?
the original Mustang convertible?
the VW bug?

granted, those cars are not the first thing that pops into my head every morning, but they all bring back fond memories for many of us here and i think that even when we are multi-faceted power system that runs off a combination of batteries, solar panels, hyper efficient generators and capacitors gathering power from the grid imbedded in the streets, i think the Prius will still be one of those memories since i think it will still be looked at as the vehicle that started our breakaway from fossil fuels

**edit** i believe my spelling is probably correct btw

 

I always like the point that our electrical grid could not handle the strain of an electric car fleet.

It reminds me of the phone company comments that the infrastructure to handle every teenager having a cell phone would take many decades to build.