Gas Prices to Jump - Good News for Hybrid Sales

I copied "the U.S. Department of Energy has warned a shortfall could develop as early as July" out of that article and pasted it into Google News search, and this is the closest article that came up. Interesting.
As Gas Prices Rise, No Relief In Sight At Pump | Fox News

 

Type "news.google.com" into your browser and you will discover perhaps one of the most useful webpages on the internet.

 

Each and every day, humans on planet earth consume about 85 million barrels of oil. Of that amount, the U.S. consumes 20 - 21 million barrels. Even if the U.S. has declining consumption of oil, developing countries (mainly India and China) are demanding oil at a rate greater than the decline of U.S. consumption. Since oil is a global commodity with increasing demand, the price can only go up -- no matter what our government does.

Keith

 

Exactly.
Which is why it is IMPERATIVE that the U.S. (and our closest allies/friends) need to begin transitioning off of oil as as soon as possible. Any person or politician who states otherwise does Not have U.S. long term survival in their interests, but is rather sacrificing (literally) the future of the U.S. (and the world human race) for their own SHORT term greed.

Right now, I see Japan as the only country (the people/consumers) that is actually taking this dire situation seriously.

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Gas spikes are not a good thing. They have the potential to hurt the already weak recovery.

Keith, while it is definitely true, that as oil gets more scarce its price will rise, there are other factors going on here. There is a temporary shortage of refining capacity caused by the shut down of refineries on the east coast and the change over to summer blends in california refieries. There are geopolitical issues with iran and sudan, and there is speculation. Gas can easily be a dollar or more lower per gallon in the fall.

Yes, the quicker we do it, the less pain will be caused in the future. I don't think america is ready for a japanese style solution, but we need to get moving faster on an american style one. Bush and Obama have taken baby steps reversing the rise in oil consumption of the 90s, but more needs to be done.

 

Hi austingreen, you are absolutely correct. My comments are based upon a long-term perspective. From a short term perspective (less than on year), there are all sorts of events that can radically increase oil prices - as you correctly pointed out.

As unpopular as it is, I still believe that the U.S. should build the Keystone XL Pipeline from Canada. Most Americans don't realize it, but the #1 country we import oil from is Canada. This pipeline from Canada is not a solution, but it would help insulate the U.S. from global events that could restrict the U.S from getting the ~13 million barrels of oil we currently import each day.

Keith

 

yeah, the pipeline is sure a long-term solution...not. Humans can't drink oil. how much water is needed to keep the planet viable? why don't we flush it to extract the black gold. apparently money and power will not work very well as a water substitute.

i have some doubts that when push comes to shove we as a human race will work it all out. until then it's painful to watch us, literally, drive towards the cliff with alternatives just sitting in the barn.

 

Two things: I
visit India once a year to see relatives (I'm originally from India). The number of cars on the road has increased unbelievably. Back in the 1970s, mostly you'd only see busses and bicycles. Now - nothing but cars everywhere. Apart from this, every single building has a diesel generator backup because of the terrible state of the electric grid. As you can see, this further increases fuel consumption.

To all those interested in oil related issues, do checkout the site The Oil Drum | Discussions about Energy and Our Future . I have been a member since 2005 and it has been invaluable source of information. I definitely see signs of the peak. This was part of the reason I bought my Prius last year.

 

Anything coming from Fox "News" should be greeted with caution. It's a political organization not a legitimate news source.

 

If everyone in the U.S. was getting 50mpg, the affect of gasoline prices would have much less of an effect on our domestic economy. And if 10% of people had EVs and CNG, it would have an even lower impact. We should be driving more fuel efficient vehicles to boost the economy.

...which presents an excellent opportunity to post a question I was pondering about this morning: Could greatly increased purchasing of hybrids and regular ICE fuel efficient vehicles make up for the loss of economic activity as a result of higher gas prices and reduced household spending activity on non-gasoline products?

 

Jump ? $ 4.39 is the cheapest you can find in this neck of the woods. We will break $5.00 by Memorial day weekend.

 

You're right!!!

The same thing applies to ABC, NBC, and CBS. About the only thing one can do is to listen to all of them and decide for yourself what is fact and what is fiction.

Keith

 

I hope this is an accurate resource -

"So what about the other sixty-six percent? This amount of oil is found in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iraq being the two nations that have the most oil to offer. Most experts predict that if trends continue, eighty three percent of global oil will be controlled by the Middle East."

"...The United States has what is known as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve....According to Reynolds, there are *700 million barrels in this stockpile. While this may be threatening to OPEC, the fact of the matter is that America uses nearly 20 million barrels of oil a day, leading one to question just how truly threatening the American SPR is to the oil bosses of OPEC."

".. In 2001 alone...The United States averaged 19,650,000 barrels a day, which was approximately one fourth of the worldwide usage..But what does this mean? ....

Clearly, the United States consumes a huge amount of oil, and as China and India increase in industrialization and population, concerns are that the global use of oil will become uncontrollable."

"All of these pieces of the pie, however, do not constitute the enormous drain of oil that is used for transportation in the United States. Transportation demands for oil comprise 66 percent, a whopping 13,244,000 barrels of oil per day. It is clear that in the world of global gas-guzzlers, the United States reigns supreme"

"....China and the United States. Both nations want access the oil of the Middle East. ...Still, there are political indications that the Chinese government feels that the United States is trying to dominate the Middle East and its strategic oil wells"

".. The oil reserves that lie under Iraq have a low sulfur content, a high carbon content and a “lightness” that make it more ideal for refining. Also, Iraq has a high quantity of oil. The U.S. Department of Energy claims that Iraqi oil reserves may be home to over 400 billion barrels of oil. However, analysts argue that both the current quality and quantity of Iraqi oil may be more alleged than actual.."

"In a sense the biggest share of the oil pie is already divvied up among the members of OPEC. "

"Everything from food to electronics must be shipped. Whether shipped on a bulk freighter across the ocean or trucked in from a neighboring town, all these items will eventually cost consumers more to move. Unfortunately, most businesses will pass those increased transportation costs to the consumer. This in turn will increase strain on the economy and ensure that a dollar no longer buys as much as it did just a few years ago when gas prices were much lower'

How Long Will Oil Reserves Last?

 

America @ $100/Barrel: How Long Will the Oil Last? - Popular Mechanics

"The oil sands of Alberta, Canada, contain 175 billion barrels of proven reserves--the largest in the world outside Saudi Arabia--but the oil costs as much as $15 per barrel to produce, compared to $2 for Saudi crude.


"

Breaking our fossil fuel dependency will require plugging into the grid instead of pulling up to the pump. Passenger vehicles chug 40 percent of the oil Americans use, but change may be coming: Chevy promises the Volt in 2010,"


"

From 1975 to 2000, American cars cut their fuel use by the equivalent of 2.8 million barrels of oil per day, spurred largely by Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) laws. Then progress stalled. December's energy law will raise CAFE standards to 35 mpg by 2020, but pushing them to 40 mpg would cut oil demand by 1 billion barrels per year, roughly our current imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Venezuela combined."

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www.eia.gov Energy Information Adm.

Where Greenhouse Gases Come From - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding Energy

"Although the industrial sector is the largest consumer of energy (including direct fuel use and purchased electricity), the transportation sector emits more carbon dioxide because of its near complete dependence on petroleum fuels.

The residential and commercial sectors have lower emission levels than transportation and industry. Most of their emissions come from fossil energy combustion to produce electricity. "

"Electricity generation consumed 40% of U.S. primary energy in 2010 and was responsible for 40% of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Coal accounted for 81% of carbon emissions resulting from the generation of electric power."

" World carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of energy are expected to increase by 1% annually between 2008 and 2035, from about 30 billion metric tons in 2008 to 35 billion metric tons in 2020 and 43 billion metric tons in 2035. Much of the increase in these emissions is expected to occur in the developing world where emerging economies, including China and India, fuel economic development with fossil energy.

The United States, with 5% of the world's population, produced about 19% of global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2008, and 18% in 2009, the most recent year for which global data are available. The United States accounts for this share primarily because the U.S. economy is the largest in the world and meets 83% of its energy needs by burning fossil fuels."

Cwedna - from eia.gov .... share of US petroluem consumption for transportation - 72% (2009) .....

 

One can confirm some of the statements via:
Oil: Crude and Petroleum Products - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding Energy
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2178rank.html
Countries - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
DOE - Fossil Energy: The Nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Demand confirms that about 2/3rds of oil use here is for transportation

Yep, that's about right for the SPR. To those who have no clue, 700 million barrels sounds like a lot, until they hear our daily consumption.

And yep, the US consumes currently 19.1 million barrels of oil/day out of total world daily production of 86.79 mllion, meaning we consume ~22% of the world's daily oil production while we posses <5% of the world's population (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html). China and India each have >1 billion people and a growing middle class, w/more being able to afford cars.

Unfortunately, it seems like Americans will continue w/business as usual, not caring, not knowing, continuing to buy monstrosity class (full-sized) SUVs when they have no actual need and driving them solo or w/minimal cargo and passengers. They'll continue to mostly shun hybrids and EVs until some of the junk science that refuses to die and FUD/misinformation goes away or until there's some other crisis (oil crisis/gasoline shortage or big further jump in gas prices).

If there were only some way to outlaw or make full-sized SUVs and beyond to consumers or make them so expensive and inconvenient to own and buy...

Meanwhile, a bunch of politicians will try to convince people they can lower gas prices to $2.50/gallon, we need to drill more (we're already doing so), that we can drive whatever we want, etc.

 

I wish more people thought that way. Not sure if you read http://priuschat.com/forums/gen-iii-2010-prius-main-forum/104348-high-gas-prices-my-fault.html w/an idiot that priustexasbob encountered at a gas station.

http://priuschat.com/forums/gen-iii-2010-prius-main-forum/104348-high-gas-prices-my-fault.html

I wonder how many other Americans have this twisted sense of "logic" as a justification for buying guzzlers.