Autoline Daily reports: "Total hybrid sales are down nearly 30,000 vehicles so far this year. They’re down 8% while the overall market is up 5%.......... By the way, nobody else is reporting this. And I think that’s why so many of you watch Autoline. We give you news and viewpoints that you’re not going to find anywhere else." http://www.autoline.tv/daily/?p=33459#more-33459 Autoline is curious to hear owners' view on why this is happening. I think it's because automakers developed nonhybrids that can get good MPG too (like the Ford Focus 1.0 with estimated 42 mpg highway, or Chevy Cruze TD with 46mpg highway). Why have the hassle of hybridization? I just looked at an Accord V6 Hybrid and then thought, 'Why except the drawbacks of an expensive battery replacement, and a rear seat that doesn't fold down?' - The nonhybrid Accord V6 gets just as good MPG.
Bob does these figures every month and we discuss on that thread. August 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com Down 8.7% this year, which means they are still up double digits from 2012. Possible reasons 1) The drop really is in 3 cars the prius liftback, prius v, and c-max. The prius needs a redesign and is losing market share, unfortunately this won't come until the end of next year. The c-max is because of 2 restatements of mpg, its not coming back. 2) PHEVs and BEVs are growing rapidly, some of the drop has moved here. This doesn't bode well for next year either, but 2016 could see a big spike in hybrids + plug-ins. New prius, new volt, tesla model X, new leaf, outlander phev
Another factor that seems to be a trend: 1) Gas price climbs by X and people move to fuel efficient cars 2) Gas price goes down by 1/2 X and people return to the old habit of gas guzzlers.
One way to look at this is just as a toyota only phenomina, since most of it is concentrated there. Toyota is selling more The problem with that theory is the fleet is getting more efficient this year, even with fewer hybrids sold. but we can modify it. Gas prices spike, more prius liftback sales, gas prices stable or falling fewer prius liftback sales. Midsized hybrid sedans (accord sales are new), bevs, and phevs are all up from 2013.
I think your theory is exactly right. For me, I'm staying with a hybrid. One big advantage of a hybrid is the peace of mind concerning a little protection of sudden gas hikes due to a disruption of oil supplies in the Middle East which is sure to happen sooner or later. In the meantime gas savings in the present.
^ I get a lot of satisfaction sitting silently at a red light, while all around the cars are idling. We tend to avoid AC, run windows down; it's almost laughable: all around us are these pods with the windows rolled up, engines running, fans whirring. And it's not that hot of a day, lol. Gloat, gloat... Our nearby Toyota dealership seemed pretty much devoid of Prius when we were in recently. That's the opposite of when we bought, late in 2010. The 3rd gen was still relatively "fresh" at the time, I guess.
I'm not seeing lots of Prius models on the dealer's lot near my house either. I wonder if there is a critical part that is in short supply or if they are trying to push other cars with bigger profit margins and deliberately limiting Prius sales. Could it be that the extension of the time that the current Prius must be available because of the delay in having the new one out has caught suppliers unprepared with the parts to keep the production lines going?
One of my theories is that with the gen 4 prius and gen 2 PiP coming out soon (well, a year or two later), a lot of people may be holding out for that one, so most likely won't be interested in getting the last gen model unless they offer really good deals on them. Dealerships may know this too, so are deliberately not ordering too many so as to avoid having too many sitting around in their lots and then having to discount them for a loss later. Another theory is that lot of people also don't like the look of the prius, and would never be caught in one, but may gladly buy a fusion/accord/camry hybrid since they look almost exactly like their non-hybrid counterparts. A more affordable Tesla may probably change a lot of people's minds about owning an EV, particularly as the Tesla Supercharger network expands. Another is that the market is simply getting saturated. There are quite a few priuses out there now, and people probably don't upgrade them every year or two on average. You generally can only expand in a market for so long before a slowdown inevitably occurs, unless you introduce something game-changing like a much lower price. That's probably why EV's have had their prices slashed so much, from the PiP to the Volt. Theory #4 ties in with what several others here have said, gas prices are somewhat low, and I'd like to add on that. I know, it's very subjective, but compared to say, 2008 it's definitely lower. And since that time, many more efficient gas guzzlers have come out that are getting decent mpg. Sure, they're nowhere near a typical hybrid/ev, but that $5k-15k they didn't have to spend on buying a hybrid can buy a lot of gas, especially if gas stays "low". Money is also tighter for a lot of folks, and the less they have to spend up front, the better for them. Many may only be able to buy a used car, or they're just deciding to drive their current car for a few more years until it falls apart from rust as opposed to buying a new one every 3-5 years. If the prius liftback was for sale for say, $18-23k, you'd bet they'd sell like crazy (and yes, I realize the c is in this range, but some folks may not want it for a variety of reasons such as ride quality, power, big family, etc). As it is though, right now a lot of people are still reluctant to pay the "hybrid premium". There are definitely more factors I missed, but I think I hit some of the big ones as to why hybrid sales are down overall.
Bloomberg did make this nifty graph of market share Why Musk Is Building Batteries in the Desert When No One Is Buying - Bloomberg You will notice share is much higher than 2011, and there is still a great deal of volitility in the hybrid market. The big did in 2011 is tsunami related damage to factories hurt sales, 2012 really raised the level, but there is a decline in non-plug-in hybrids starting at the end of 2013. Recently there is some recovery back to over 3% market share for the pure hybrid, and we are close to 4% if you include plug-ins.
"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." - Mark Twain We've been chatting about the big sales drop that happened in September 2013 and continued until March of this year. That hybrid skeptics did the math through August 2014, well that is to be expected . . . schadenfreude. September 2014 sales numbers will be here soon enough and we'll see if history repeats itself. Many of the impacts from September 2013 have passed: CARB treating hybrids like ordinary cars; softening gas prices and; Federal Government shutdown. CARB can't kill hybrids this year as they already did their best last year. Gas prices have softened but recently plateaued. As for another government shutdown, there are good political reasons why Congress-critters won't do it before the November election. I am gratified to see Toyota has moved away from the grade-school commercials towards adult sales pitches. Cute doesn't sell to the general public and going professional, treating prospective customers as adults, well it is about time. Bob Wilson
No one at work even mentions a Toyota commercial, much less a Prius commercial, but they were all talking about this one.
There have been a number of stories about falling gas prices Gas Prices Falling, Headed Below $3 in Much of US - ABC News and U.S. Gas Prices Are Falling Fast: Time for the Return of the $3 Gallon? - Businessweek Oil prices plunging despite ISIS - Sep. 25, 2014 This may hurt hybrid sales as it did at the end of last year especially the prius liftback, prius v, and c-max. I doubt it will have much affect on plug-in sales, in fact the war with ISIS may boost patriotism sales of these vehicles.
I saw $2.979 at multiple stations in Southern Virginia last weekend. Those kinda prices reduce the attractiveness of high mileage cars for many folk. Short memories. Plus what hybrid cars were recently introduced?
