2026 hurricanes

N Atlantic forecasts are in and low and this season has had a boring start. El Nino going big is expected to remotely shear tops of developing systems there.

In West Pacific Typhoon Bavi was probably strongest of year crossing some islands (with US interests). It has weakened and recurved away from Taiwan. Expect typical winds in coastal China to the north and much rain and later in N Korea.

When storms weaken in terms of low central barometric pressure, they still carry big rain.

 

Pacific Ocean has been most interesting for such storms this year. Typhoon Dolphin looks to attain 930 millibars central air pressure this Tuesday or Wednesday. Few storms get that low. Excitement on Okinawa soon after.

 

Typhoon Dolphin will impinge Shanghai area later, after influencing international shipping fleets at sail.

Typhoon Dolphin is going over 31 oC water; described by some as "unbelievable". But things are as they are.

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Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum lasted about 100,000 years about 55 million years ago. It was whacking hot with ocean surfaces the same. [CO2] was 1800 ppm or more, depending on where you read. Bad times; ill suited to human enterprise.

Much wondering about challenging conditions on land, but I also wonder about hurricanes then. Wow. Way more frisky than anything we imagine now.

 

Numerical models of Typhoon Dolphin have diverged, 120 hours out:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12W_tracks_latest.png

This is uncommon and complicates decisions on which coastal cities (from Fuzhou to Shanghai) need evacuations. Many people inhabit that stretch of coastline.

 

Forecast models are still very wide (4 days out) from Fuzhou to Ningbo. Yeah I know, wherever those places are ... Coastal populations along that stretch are roughly 50 million or two 'Floridas'. If this was setting up in another place you read about it for sure.

Baro pressure at landfall in 950 to 970 millibar range (Category 3 or 2 in more familiar units). Okinawa gets it sooner, with 940 MB or so. Buckle up.