I don't think he really believes this but has to say something negative to counter all the Volt hype. It does not make sense otherwise. He must know that fuel cells are a crock.
This is just sour grapes from Honda. They got beat by Toyota badly with the Prius. Hardly a need to improve on the technology of that car. It cuts the cost of gas in half.
Maybe he's specifically talking about the cost differential, while yeah quite a few of us might be willing to pay a $10k premium for 40 miles of EV range, will the public?
I don't see the negativity in his statement - seems like a perfectly rational and straightforward statement of opinion which includes the qualifier 'widespread'. MikeSF is probably making an accurate interpretation. Almost everyone agrees that battery technology needs to advance further in order to bring a PHEV or EV with a reasonable range into an affordable range for a wider consumership. Since the Volt is not scheduled for production until November of 2010 and at an estimated cost of $40,000, I think the statement is valid.
Mmmmm, I'd say cop-out. Battery technology has been ready for a long time. What is lacking is someones commitment to take it to the large volume production required to get the price down. Existing NimH technology has proven very reliable in existing hybrids and is more than sufficient for medium range PHEVs. Of course chevron/texaco's patent coverage over large NimH complicates that somewhat. I would agree, and have argued in a number of threads, that GM is barking up the wrong tree. A 40 mile range at a more likely $20k cost delta is not going to move us into the required high volume battery production. The existing Prius, followed by short to mid range PHEVs will move a lot more units and bring the cost down a lot faster. Sounds mostly like Honda is saying we don't have a PHEV on the horizon since IMA is not very amenable to a plug, so lets spin it as a good thing Rob
NiMH is not good for PHEVs. They suffer from a low efficiency under high drain, such that you only get ~65-75% of the energy back out compared to what you put in. The modern lithium-ion chemistries return >98% of the energy put in. Lithium-ion is already cheaper (in the mature formats) per kWh than NiMH.
Volt will need government subsidy to succeed. Honda has been and will continue to be a very conservative company, marketing-wise. Honda is an engineering company. They were slow to bring out truck, minivan and SUV. They even resisted to bring out V8 engines, which hurt their product lines, especially Acura. Most of their CEOs in the past had engineering background, especially in the racing. They will continue to invent and research and stockpile their technology backlog. Once battery is ready, Honda, with it engineering expertise, can jump in this market very quickly. They don't see the need to fight to be the 1st in PHEV, and I agree with them. Being the 1st in PHEV is big-boy's game. It costs $$$$$$$. Being the 1st has not been Honda's playbook. Insight, you said? Insight was a concept that was brought to production to show off Honda's technology. They didn't see the potential of market such as Prius today (again, lousy marketing). You can say, Honda missed it, or you may also say that Toyota was lucky that oil price is as high as today's. Don't count Honda out just yet. This is a tortoise and hare race. Honda will surpass Chrysler in US within a couple years and become #3. If you ask Toyota, "Which company is in Toyota's nightmare?" The answer is "Honda.", not GM. I have been a Honda customers before I bought Prius, my 1st Toyota. Just to contribute my view of Honda, a great company.
Under any kind of load, NiMH cells are notoriously inefficient. Even the old NiCd cells are much better, but they are toxic and only have half the power density of NiMH. Fuel economy of hybrids using NiMH cells would go up significantly in aggressive driving situations where NiMH cells are current limited because of how hot they get when pushing a lot of current through them.
Let us not forget that Honda was making the decision to discontinue the Insight at the same time that Toyota was redesigning the Prius. Who turned out to be right on predicting the future? Now, Honda is desperately trying to play catch-up, by racing to get the Insight back on the market. Currently, Toyota is experimenting/testing plug-ins, and Honda is not. Hmmmm. Will history repeat itself? My grandfather always told me "it never hurts to be prepared ahead of time." I agree with you that Honda has great engineers and makes great cars. This is a matter of executive decisions though. The executives are the ones that made the decision to axe the Insight, and the executives are the ones that made the decision to bring the Insight back. (side note: Toyota has SUPERB engineers) .
