Analysts Increase Probability on $80/Barrel Oil by Year End 4 July 2005 Bloomberg. Options contracts are pointing to oil at $80/barrel by the end of the year, and Deutsche Bank has increased its estimated probability that oil will top $75 a barrel to 21% up from 5% in January. New York Mercantile Exchange data show 6,900 options contracts outstanding that allow buyers to purchase oil for December delivery at $80 a barrel, compared with an average of 77 contracts in January.
The higher fuel prices will reverse the trend to move from employment centers, making the city core more attractive. At some point, fuel consumption must fall as prices rise. So far this has not happened, consumption in USA is up several percent over last year.
Re: Analysts Increase Probability on $80/Barrel Oil by Year I predicted gas will be $3.00 a gal before the end of the year. As for the city centers/older core neighborhoods attracting residents I'm ambivalent. I live in an older, not so valuable neighborhood that is 10 min from downtown, 15 min. from the beach, 20 min. from the mountains and freeway close to everything. Now with the new eminent domain ruling I'm afraid some developer is going to target my neighborhood and feed the city some pablum and my home will be taken from me for pennies on the dollar. There is no such thing as fair market value here. Developers own everyone. Sandra Day O'Connor was right.