Not as bad as 2005 but still following upward trend in activity. *** http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...CmkG1M&refer=us http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/dec2005/ Atlantic Hurricane Season to Top Normal for 4th Year (Update2) April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Another above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is expected this year following a record number of storms in 2005, scientists said. The June-through-November period will yield nine hurricanes out of a total of 17 named storms, Colorado State University scientists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said in a report today from Fort Collins. The 2005 season produced a record 15 hurricanes and 27 named storms. ``The climate signals are such that this looks like it's going to be an active year,'' Gray said in a telephone interview today from his office. ``Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are very warm. That's a major factor.'' Five of the nine hurricanes will pack sustained winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or more, making them major hurricanes on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, the scientists said. Today's forecast agrees with the Colorado team's December outlook. The forecast for another above-active hurricane season this year conforms to the scientists' theory that the Atlantic basin is in an extended period of above-average hurricane activity. Nine of the past 11 years have been above-average seasons, Gray said, and he expects the trend to last another 15 to 20 years. The 2003 and 2004 seasons generated seven hurricanes and nine hurricanes, respectively. The last 11 years have yielded an average of four major Atlantic hurricanes a season, Gray said, up from an average of 1.5 per year from 1970 through 1994.
I saw this too. It never ceases to amuse me that the leading hurricane experts in the country are here in CO at CSU. How the hell did that happen?!? Actually, now that I think about it, NOAA and NCAR have large facilities here in CO and that is probably why. It's still funny though.
well guess if they predict that it wont be as bad as 2005 but worse than average, that means they ALMOST got it right.
An important aspect of the Gray (now Klotzback/Gray) forecasts is the number of intense (category 3 or greater) hurricanes. What is interesting about 2006 is that the forecast is 5 intense hurricanes. Since 1999 (the earliest year where these forecasts are now archived at the CSU site) these forecasts have been in the 2 to 4 range.
