bmw - the ultimate hybrid machine? Most beemers will be phevs in 2022

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I would count the i3 as their first modern phev ;-) The 330e that they are planning has a 7.6 kwh battery.
First Images Of BMW 330e Plug-In Hybrid

That 22 miles may be nedc. The fusion energi with a similar battery though gets 18 miles epa range, so 22 epa is not out of the question.

The key are the euro and american regulations and battery costs. I suspect in 2022 the target for this bmw battery prices will be around $250/kwh, making a 10 kwh battery only add $2500 in cost. If they get a 25% margin the price charged will only be $3350 over hybrid. A turbo charged 3 or 4 cylinder engine + phev should cost bmw less than a turbo inline 6 (35i) drivetrain when this comes to be.

 

In 7 years if bmw and audi can effectively lobby the german government.

Both will still have diesels. Some diesel will come from renewable electricity.

bmw will have a phev or bev at each car size. This will follow the i8 or i3 strategy. i8 uses a 7.1 kwh battery, soon to be released bmw 330e will use 7.6 kwh, I doubt we will see anouther new 10 mile bmw model. Size of the battery will reflect battery costs and government regulation. At current regulation for 2025, that probably means around 20 mile range. BMW took notice of the efficiency and driving dynamics of e4wd, and many will have a e4wd oprion. That may mean that fwd hybrid which is lighter and cheaper is the default, with eAWD the preferred option.

 

I think there is a good chance it gets subsidized enough in germany that it is sold in europe. Subsidies for e-diesel don't need to be nearly as large as for hydrogen to get a similar environmental effect.

On the road of fast refuel alternative fuels to oil, I like lng and methanol. Both can be made renewably, but aren't because of cheap fossil methane. Both require some regulatory changes though, and I don't think that will happen in europe. For lng, in the US there is not the federal help but states big states are pushing it for big trucks, and their is hope. For methanol blends, california first supported and killed it for hydrogen, there is a bill in US congress but it is going nowhere. China likes methanol and its use there may lower the strain on oil production. In europe with all the nuclear and wind power, these e fuels can probably be made cheaply off peak. in China there is no extra electricity for decades, texas may be a good source of renewable methanol and renewable diesel in a number of decades as it has ports to export, refineries, and likely excess cheap off peak wind in the 2030s and lots of agricultural waste that can be made into bio methane..

Flex fuel hybrids and phevs that can burn M85 (high methanol blended fuels) likely are an inexpensive path to renewable transportation.

 

Well I agree here.

E-diesel relies on 2 technologies, hydrolysis and gas (methane) to diesel, both fairly proven. Sansol just delayed their US gas to diesel plant because unsubsidized the diesel would end up costing $4/gallon for sansol to make a fat profit. That plant would rely on cheap shale gas as a source of hydrogen if and when it is built. This is well understood technology, but not mature, so they can build huge plants economically but not little $100M plants. That may change soon as companies are quickly doing R&D on this technology as oil company reserves move from crude to gas.

The second technology is non- hydrogen or methane - electrolysis using renewable power , or biodigestion to get hydrogen or biomethane. The cheapest source would be off peak nuclear and wind. In Germany 2015, there is not enough of this cheap power to feed a big plant. Texas/Louisiana you could probably build it relatively quickly, but natural gas is so cheap that it looks like a bad investment. But this is a fairly easy, if not cheap way to quickly add carbon free diesel to transportation. Small plants can easily be made for methanol though, which could be added to gasoline for a flex fuel hybrid or phev.

The real push is car companies don't like the zero mandates, and indeed with the posibility of synthetic fuels and pollution control, there is no reason to favor hydrogen over phev using rM85 (methanol (bio or e) 85% gasoline 15%) or a diesel burning eDiesel. I think bmw is firmly behind a move to phevs, but vw group sells many more cars and the advantages are smaller in less expensive cars.