Source: http://wardsauto.com/industry/brace-impact-us-sales-plunge-ahead AlixPartners forecasts 2017 sales of 16.9 million units, down from a record 17.5 million last year. WardsAuto forecasts 17.1 million light-vehicle deliveries this year. Looking further ahead, AlixPartners thinks sales will tumble to 15.2 million in 2019, a forecast that runs counter to many others that see industry sales enjoying a long-term plateau near current levels. . . . Wakefield says a key element of the consultancy’s forecast is a “used-car time bomb” set to go off as 500,000 more vehicles will come off lease this year than year-ago. The flood of previously owned cars and trucks likely will double the 13% drop in used-vehicle prices the industry has witnessed since 2014. “Our biggest concern is used cars,” says Wakefield, who sees the price drop costing automakers’ captive-finance companies upwards of $5 billion. The dynamic will cause a double-whammy to sales, he predicts, as new-car shoppers turn to cheaper used cars and lease payments on those new vehicles rise against anticipated higher residual rates and costlier credit standards. Look at all the Leaf, Volt, and BMW i3 that are rolling off lease and on to the used car lots. Very affordable, many have seen no significant degradation in performance (but check) and when on lease are 'well kept.' Bob Wilson
there's more to be concerned about than used cars. the next goldman sachs created bubble is going to be a doozy for a country already 20 trillion in debt. keep digging!
...see also the other Reuters article on how autos are managing used car sales to maximize profits there. This includes more transporting of used cars to where there is demand, and holding some back off the market. I assume we have good used car demand in Virginia due to our infamous car tax, which hits new cars hardest.
