Gary Shilling is my economics guru and he is still talking crude oil could go down to $10-$25. Based in part on Shilling, I correctly predicted $2 gaso Feb_2016 but I missed on $1 gaso for Feb_2017, because the OPEC production cut back action temporarily increased crude oil value. But I am still predicting $1 gaso at some point (Feb_2018?)...we obviously do not know exact timing, just general trend still could be downward price pressure. See 4:40 mark Loonie to fall to 50 cents: Gary Shilling - Video - BNN also interesting comment: "if you want to talk global Milk trade, you gotta talk about New Zealand" at 3:26
The trend is your friend until the end. I can't see the video. Increased US rig count tempered cuts in the Middle East. OPEC and the other nonaligned producers aren't going to be able to squash domestic output and there will be a point where they aren't going to be willing to give the product away. I believe we've found a bottom and it will hold at current levels. I'm still waiting for "The Experts" that were saying prices would return to $100 in 2017 to be vindicated. For those who believe in $10-$25 oil by January 19, 2018 or June 15, 2018 what's the trade?
Oil prices aren't going to be stable for the next hundred years let alone the next 5, so our desire to waste as much as possible will have predictable yet still unfortunate consequences.
Although I think energy prices will be low (good for consumer), thus I am a bear on fossil fuel energy stocks. I watched a lot of people "lose their shirts" on coal and nat gas as prices plunged. Economist Gary Shilling publishes each year (with extensive monthly updates) his investment themes. So he is the one to ask (or get his Newsletter for $300) but I think he removed North America energy from his recommended investment list a few years ago (not because he likes EV's, just he sees fracking is wiping out the OPEC cartel and its ability to control prices long term).
I have long believed that Reagans "oil market" should be disbanded, it is an unnecessary and destructive layer between the producer and end user. That said making decisions believing because energy prices will be "low" for a few years "that's like forever" is foolhardy at best. The investment and bust process only aggravates the problem further
it's almost like believing the stock market or housing bubble will never burst. or interest rates will never go to 18% again.
