DOE concludes Electric Vehicles satisfy the daily needs of drivers longer than assumed

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Apr 27, 2015.

Page 1 of 2
  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,635
    4,177
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    DoE Scientists Conclude Electric Cars Will "Meet The Daily Travel Needs Of Drivers Longer Than Commonly Assumed"
    Now I have trouble with this survey since many of those in that 80% will occasionally exceed that 42 miles range especially if its cold or hot and range is reduced, errends etc. But it is a high proportion of society that travels 42 miles or less, and has access to another car, train, or plane for longer travel.

    This sheds light on how fast quick chargers need to be. Let;s assume a 210 mile range vehicle that drops to a 165 mile range vehicle after 7 instead of 84 miles, that can quick charge as fast as the tesla 135 kw quick chargers. Say they only charge to 80% and on average charge at 32 miles, that means they would need about 34 kwh of electricity to charge 100 miles (100 mpge assumed average). That would take 15 minutes to charge, lets say 20 minutes for the extra time to get to the quick charger and slow start to condition the battery. That 100 miles would be enough to get to a charger at home or work for most drivers. If they needed to hit a fast charger 15 times a year that would not be much time (5 hours a year) at all. Chevy, nissan, and ford, all promise these cars, but not charging speed in the near future. Tesla has them today and a lower priced model should be available in the near future.

    There are those whose occasional trips are much longer, the tail of the curve. If we eliminate the 2 million out of 253 million cars that may be involved with commuting over 50 miles each way to work, a phev or a 300+ mile bev would work for most of these long occasional trips. Some of those 300+ mile bevs may need battery swap stations but that is simply a matter of money.
     
    #1 austingreen, Apr 27, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2015
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    112,190
    51,042
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    it's a convenience thing. as soon as you tell people you might need another car or a rental, it's just another mental hurdle or excuse.
     
    #2 bisco, Apr 27, 2015
  3. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2008
    6,405
    4,402
    1
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    Other Electric Vehicle
    Model:
    N/A
    Not in my experience.
    Most people that I have spoken with are already two car households. When I mention taking the EV on normal days and dedicating the other car to longer trips, most of them comment how they already dedicate one of the vehicles as the one they take on trips.

    For one car households, most often the Volt is the best solution as they can drive electric around town and on long trips.

    You are right about the American consumer valuing convenience very highly though.
    Which is one of the reasons EVs will continue to grow faster than hybrids.
    Waking up every morning with a full tank is very convenient!
     
    #3 Zythryn, Apr 27, 2015
    FL_Prius_Driver likes this.
  4. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,635
    4,177
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    Well I was talking about people getting a 200+ bev (tesla S 70d with autopilot at 71K after federal tax breaks))or 50+ mile phev (gen II volt should be cheapest under $30K after federal tax breaks).

    For those 80% of the 60% of drivers (48%) in a single family home that could add a charger for 1 plug-in, the problem is not range. Cost or not likeing the choice of cars, or fear of the new technology will be the barrier. If 20 years from now 25% of those are on plug-ins (12% of drivers) as choice goes up and price goes down, it will probably reduce oil use by 10% and ghg by 5%. That isn't a bad goal for 2035. If we reach it, battery swap stations should be economic, and infrastructure built out, to get a much higher percentage of the population by 2050, if oil prices spike.
     
    #4 austingreen, Apr 27, 2015
    bisco likes this.
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    112,190
    51,042
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    as an alternative to $10. gas, i think a lot of the convenience factor would go out the window, assuming there isn't a corresponding rise in electrons.
     
    #5 bisco, Apr 27, 2015
    dbcassidy and austingreen like this.
  6. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2012
    3,889
    1,752
    0
    Location:
    Sanford, NC
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    Limited
    Help me out here.

    My definition of a full tank is I have to stop before it does.

    A second-car hybrid sits in my garage with ~500 miles of range.

    I can recharge/refill it every 10 miles or so in less time than it takes me to visit the restroom.

    I don't have to use an app to find a recharging/filling station.

    A recharging/filling station will have generally more than 6 pumps and one will be vacated in about 10 minutes even if all of them are being used when I arrive.

    I don't have rip up my ceiling to run electricity for a home charging station.

    I don't have to remember to plug it in. If I forget to fill it up, I can fill up on my way to just about anywhere.

    I don't have to remember that I shouldn't plug it in before 9PM because electricity costs so much more before that time. If I do plug it in, the current draw will mean I can't run some other appliance because I have a smart energy solution box that limits the amount of current draw during the expensive hours.

    I don't have to be worried about a emergency call from work or home that may cause me to need to go out of range.

    I don't have to carry a charger when I visit anyone.

    What about even the ~180 mile range EV is convenient compared to that?

    I'll grant that for some, an EV makes sense if priced right and if a second car use destination can always be predicted to be within 40% of range.
     
    #6 mikefocke, Apr 27, 2015
    dbcassidy likes this.
  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,635
    4,177
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    Mike I think the differences of opinion is I'm talking maybe 12% by 2035, and you seem to think about majority now.

    Certainly. And with a 200+ mile bev, or a 50+ mile bev if you recharge at home most nights, most peoole only need to hit the public charger or gas station infrequently.

    yep and that is true of all phevs even today. when L3 chargers are built out, and all long range bevs have telematics like tesla just released, your car will tell you when and where to stop for a charge on a long trip.

    I use gasbuddy on trips, gas prices very quite a bit. On these long range bevs I expect the apps to be built into the navigation system. They also are available for your phone.

    If you have to rip up your ceiling to install an outlet, a plug-in probably is not for you until gasoline becomes much more expensive. If you have a 200 mile bev, you can forget one day and chage it the next. How many days do you forget to charge your phone. If you forget the second day you can charge at a L2 public charger. Soon there will be more outlets available than gas stations, but you will have to wait for forgetting, so I think most people will remember to charge at least every other day.

    I think we are now at the excuses level. If you need to make excuses simply don't buy a plug-in. That doesn't mean that if all your neighbors start getting them and you like it better than your current car, that you might be tempted. I put that date out 20 years, when we have $100/kwh batteries, filled in infrastructure, and more expensive gasoline.
     
    #7 austingreen, Apr 27, 2015
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2008
    6,405
    4,402
    1
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    Other Electric Vehicle
    Model:
    N/A
    Unless on vacation I have never needed to fill up away from home.

    I have a full tank every morning.

    My recharge point is my garage 99% of trips.

    I'm not sure why you would choose to tear up your ceiling. We simply had a 40 amp outlet installed. We have used this with two cars so far.

    I don't have to worry about being late because I have to fill up while I am on my way somewhere.

    I don't have to worry about smelling like gasoline because a spilled a drop on my shoe, or suit.

    I domy have to worry about standing outside in a blizzard, or inclement weather to fuel up.

    I never need to worry about plugging in immediately when I get home as the car starts the charge based on the timer I set up.

    I never need to worry about an emergency taking me out of range, nor having to stop and fuel up if I do get called to an emergency unexpectedly.

    I can always start prewarming/cooling the car and don't have to worry about the car warming up in a closed garage.

    I never have to worry about oil leaking on my garage floor.

    The only thing I need to worry about is how to spend the money I am saving from not needing gas.
     
    #8 Zythryn, Apr 27, 2015
  9. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    1,581
    290
    3
    Location:
    Middlesex County, MA
    Vehicle:
    2008 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    Talk about blowing things out of proportion!

    Just admit it - you HATE ice / hybrid powered vehicles.

    DBCassidy
     
    #9 dbcassidy, Apr 27, 2015
  10. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2010
    8,118
    6,922
    0
    Location:
    Redneck Riviera (Gulf South)
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Old w(h)ine.
    New bottle.

    EV's are starting to reach economic viability.
    OEMs aren't stupid.

    They're betting that tax kickbacks will continue and that low gas prices will not.
    THAT'S why developments continue.

    Here's the cool part!
    Trickle down technology.

    The one percenters, early adopters and other 'eco-chic' usually trade cars out fairly often, and you can usually only get one tax break.
    This means that the unwashed masses get price-adjusted access to the technology - especially rolling stock, since cars take large depreciation hits after the first few years.
    If Joe six-pack swallows his pride and sells the dually and rolls a PHEV, BEV, or just a plain old garden-variety Hybrid then the Joes and Janes out there begin to discover that some of this hardware is actually GREEN......meaning $$$$$ green.


    Other than that?
    SSDA
     
    #10 ETC(SS), Apr 27, 2015
  11. Stevevee

    Stevevee Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2013
    821
    224
    0
    Location:
    Vermont
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Things can change over time, and they often will. Do you feel EV can stand on it's own, or does something else have to happen to make it a good idea?

    Let's assume (wrongly), that gasoline and electricity are the very same costs for the next 30 years. Just humor me here.

    How does EV win, or does it?
     
    #11 Stevevee, Apr 27, 2015
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    112,190
    51,042
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    it doesn't, everything else being equal. there wouldn't even be an ev today, if it weren't for government incentives and prius influence.
     
    #12 bisco, Apr 27, 2015
  13. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2008
    6,405
    4,402
    1
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    Other Electric Vehicle
    Model:
    N/A
    EVs still win, IMO.

    Better performance.
    More convenient for many people.
    More space.
    Better driving experience.
     
    #13 Zythryn, Apr 27, 2015
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    112,190
    51,042
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    oh, we're all just jealous.:p
     
    #14 bisco, Apr 27, 2015
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2009
    13,635
    4,177
    0
    Location:
    Austin, TX, USA
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    N/A
    At the end o these government subsidies I think battery prices will be down to $150 kw. That is only $1200 for a 8 kwh battery pack. Those can definitely stand on their own with these energy prices. 80kwh cost $12,000 for the performance luxury bev segment.
    If we assume gasoline prices stay the same, electricity prices stay the same, and no one cares about ghg from the gasoline, then the subsidies would have been a waste of government money.

    Still after this round, I would think plug-ins would claim at least 10% of the Us market. A 7kwh battery pack and a motor on the other axle (front for rwd, and rear for fwd) gives you an instant through the ground awd system and hp for very little money($5000?). It probably gives v8 performance with a turbo di I4 to at least 40 mph, adds smoothness, adds traction, adds engine offf at stops. This will be an option on all luxury cars.

    Still the subsidy is insurance against gas prices rising greatly and ghg becoming a concern. Taken as that the $11B the US government is spending is less than an aircraft carrier that we might need if we run low on oil. The chinese government will spend even more because they know how much weapon systems cost.
     
    #15 austingreen, Apr 27, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2015
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    28,264
    15,991
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    • moving parts -> EV wins
    • low operating temperature -> EV wins
    • flex-fuel -> EV wins
    • vehicle emissions -> EV wins
    • global emissions -> toss-up
    • cold weather performance -> ICE
    • distance per refueling minute -> ICE
    • familiar to customers and industry -> ICE
    • purchase price -> ICE (today)
    Bob Wilson
     
    #16 bwilson4web, Apr 27, 2015
    dbcassidy likes this.
  17. Stevevee

    Stevevee Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2013
    821
    224
    0
    Location:
    Vermont
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    I say, let the advances in technology win us over. Could very well happen.
     
    #17 Stevevee, Apr 27, 2015
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    112,190
    51,042
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    i can't afford to wait that long.:unsure:
     
    #18 bisco, Apr 27, 2015
    dbcassidy likes this.
  19. Stevevee

    Stevevee Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2013
    821
    224
    0
    Location:
    Vermont
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    I try not to push the result I want.
     
    #19 Stevevee, Apr 27, 2015
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    112,190
    51,042
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    pproly a good idea, but as you get older, it's harder to discipline yourself.;)
     
    #20 bisco, Apr 27, 2015
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)
Page 1 of 2