Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4103022-teslas-gigafactory-will-manufacture-better-cheaper-batteries First, the cell capacity ratings table on Slide 14 show that 2170 Gigafactory cells have slightly lower energy density than 18650 Panasonic cells. While the stated capacity of 4.9 Amp-hours for a 2170 Gigafactory cell is higher than the stated capacity of 3.4 Amp-hours for an 18650 Panasonic cell, a 2170 can has 46.6% more volume than an 18650 can and a proportional increase would give a 2170 cell 5 Amp-hours of capacity. These numbers are shockingly inconsistent with Tesla’s claims that Gigafactory cells have higher energy density than Panasonic cells. Second, Slides 17 and 21 show that the NCA 83,13,4 cathode powder used in 2170 Gigafactory cells contains 3.7% more nickel and 13.3% less cobalt than the NCA 80,15,5 cathode powder used in 18650 Panasonic cells. Based on this new data, I’ve reduced my estimate of Tesla’s annual cobalt requirements from 7,000 MT to 4,465 MT, which doesn’t natter all that much since Tesla plans to rely on the kindness of the market instead of nailing down a reliable long-term supply contract like Volkswagen did. Third, Slide 19 suggests that Tesla doesn't have any significant partners beyond Panasonic in the Gigafactory, there will be no meaningful benefits from vertical integration of the supply chain for the Gigafactory and Tesla will simply buy components and supplies from the same vendors as everyone else. Fourth, Slide 21 clearly states that the Gigafactory will offer “no reduction in cost,” another shocking inconsistency with Tesla’s public claims that Gigafactory cells will be cheaper than Panasonic cells. Fifth, Slides 21 and 25 suggest that Panasonic will earn a gross margin of 5% to 7% for providing the manufacturing equipment and doing the heavy lifting of manufacturing cells in the Gigafactory so that Tesla can target gross margins of 25% for assembling those cells into battery packs and building EVs. While some might think it noble for Panasonic to sacrifice its stockholders for Tesla’s benefit, I have to ask, “What’s up with that?” Now this article ends in a stock analysis so that gives me pause. But absent a datasheet on the 2170, this is all I've found. Bob Wilson
Toyota claims to be using a higher grade of Nickel in Gen 4 cells. I do not know how that changes the comparison. I know that @TampaPrius.com put Gen 4 NiMH modules in a Gen 2 case successfully perhaps he has some photos of the model labels of the new modules.
I don't believe Panasonic is sacrificing anything. Tesla signed a take or pay contract. As long as Tesla is solvent Panasonic will be recovering their costs and making a profit. Afterwards, they have the right to remain in the Gigafactory rent free.
