The latest FCV concept is powered by a single hydrogen fuel cell stack, is capable of driving 300 miles on a single tank and can be refueled in about five minutes. Compared to the FCX, the FCV concept’s fuel cell stack has a power output of 3.1kW/L, a 60 percent increase even though the stack has been physically reduced in size by 30 percent. Honda Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Arriving by 2020
I was just reading this Hy Gen report. The capital costs seem huge given the number of cars that could be fueled. How a Renewable Hydrogen Fueling Station Works - Hygen Industries
Honda Fuel-Cell Vehicle U.S. Sales Date Gets A Little Fuzzier I think the dates are 2016, probably a little over a year away in japan, and sometime in 2017 in the US. The quote, that they don't expect to sell in low volume, probably means lease only. The 2015 date for japan slipped, probably after honda saw the mirai, and decided there was no need to rush their car out. The later they push it out, the more fueling stations built, and probably the more costs they can pull from it. Honda and Toyota committed to 6000 cars in japan combined by end of 2020, to get the Japanese government to come up with the large amounts of subsidies (3 million yen in some areas plus lots of hydrogen station subsidies). These are pre-commercial numbers. Honda seems firmly on the side with its partner GM that both the costs of the cars and infrastructure means that they will only sell in pre commercial quantities for at least the next decade. Breakthroughs are needed to get costs down.
Do I bother to search out the articles from 2003 saying we'd have fuel cell cars in 2007, or in 2007 saying 2011, or the ones in 2011 saying we'd have significant numbers on the road today? 2020 is 5 years away and who knows what BEV offerings will be available then, and how competitively priced they'd be.
The other factor in play is how long (and big) the subsidies that are maintained. With fuel cell cars, the subsidies may end up being the only thing keeping this niche sustained. Instead of kick starting the H2 concept, it probably ends up being the life support for it.
When we get our 'clean' fusion powered, hydrogen generation power plants, using brackish and sea water as the feed stock, I may change my mind about FCV. Bob Wilson
We have 2 subsidies, the commercialization and the R&D subsidies. I don't think R&D will go away, but R&D is much less expensive than trying to commercialize them. For plug-in cars it was the tesla roadster that seemed to crystallize that they were ready for commercialization. After that toyota, gm, and nissan seemed to think 2011 would be the start of commercialization, and the US and Japanese governments helped push. Now there are hundreds of thousands of plug-ins in the US, we will only get to around 40% of a the presidents goal of 1M in 2015 but the commercial phase is on. The clarity and tuscon fuel cell, and mirai, don't seem to be as ready as the roadster was Maybe the next generation or the one after that. I think the big incentives will be gone by then at least in the US, but if R&D breakthroughs happen, maybe. I think hydrogen prices need to drop a lot (through some tech) or oil prices need to increase a great deal for the US to pay as much next time per car. If its for ghg reduction, fuel cell vehicles just don't cut it versus plug-ins. I do remember in 2002, many warned we would need many tech advances and they wouldn't be ready for 20 years. Honda and GM stood up, and said hundreds of thousands by 2020, and CARB said yeah fuel cells are much closer than plug-ins, lets support fuel cells. When people tried to speak at those carb meetings about realities of the challenges for fcv, the chairman shut it down. He later became head of the fuel cell lobby. we know at least in the sport and luxury fields, plug-in costs look like they will be fine unsubsidized in 2020. I bet the bmw 330i and tesla model 3, have lower tco than the bmw 335i. That does assume battery prices keep falling, and gasoline prices go back up.
