Featured Hybrid Dashboard Summary: June 2015

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Jul 2, 2015.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Another good report from Jeff Cobb's team:
    model Jun_15 May_15 Apr_15 Mar_15
    1 Prius Liftback 9559 11921 8822 9485
    2 Ram Pickup Diesel 5050 5647 5072
    3 Model S 2800 2300 1900 2000
    4 Prius c 2756 3763 3523 3564
    5 Camry Hybrid 2755 3174 2650 2739
    6 Passat Diesel 2489 2769 2182 1949
    7 Sonata 2334 2943 2481 1793
    8 Prius v (lowercase v) 2272 3152 2462 2516
    9 Leaf 2074 2104 1553 1817
    10 Jetta Diesel 1852 2141 1949 2409
    11 C-Max Hybrid 1814 1892 1237 1054
    12 Fusion Hybrid 1691 2440 1820 2534
    13 Golf Sportwagon Diesel 1506 1419 928 87
    14 Accord Hybrid 1241 1463 1118 948
    15 Volt 1225 1618 905 639
    16 CT200h 1118 1436 1170 1416
    17 Avalon Hybrid 973 1114 906 902
    18 Golf Diesel 955 1011 821 841
    19 Optima Hybrid 897 1046 892 805
    20 Fusion Energi 727 986 711 837
    21 ES Hybrid 711 911 789 1076
    22 MKZ 700 1005 810 717
    23 C-Max Energi 667 715 553 715
    24 i3* 551 818 406 922
    25 XV Crosstrek Hybrid 493 557 552 587
    26 RX 400 / 450 h 486 551 492 641
    27 Prius Plug In 464 727 428 473
    28 Q5 Diesel 462 517 486 464
    29 X5 Diesel 422 1299 417 459
    30 500E 411 471 450 164
    31 Civic Hybrid 391 458 386 351
    32 Q7 Diesel 360 386 355 345
    33 Cruze Diesel 350 390 345 387
    34 Q50 Hybrid 347 342 299 390
    35 Lacrosse Hybrid 341 498 531 497
    36 Touareg Diesel 328 348 323 273
    37 3-Series Diesel 316 670 217 386
    38 Highlander Hybrid 311 323 305 295
    39 Cayenne Diesel 311 250 444 314
    40 Grand Cherokee Diesel 309 364 321 336
    41 GL-Class Diesel 307 383 371 377
    42 e-Golf 293 410 309 195
    43 A3 Diesel 274 313 438 240
    44 B-Class Electric 242 278 158 145
    45 Spark 226 283 920 151
    46 Pathfinder Hybrid* 215 223 167 258
    47 CR-Z 204 246 216 255
    48 NX Hybrid 203 250 210 225
    49 QX60 Hybrid* 180 188 170 195
    50 A6 Diesel 155 134 130 94
    51 Focus EV 152 165 124 140
    52 i8 137 117 138 143
    53 GLK Class Diesel 131 111 1117 270
    54 Insight 126 139 183 209
    55 Civic 124 44 34 38
    56 Soul EV 109 108 73 63
    57 X3 Diesel 103 123 426 20
    58 forTwo EV 94 102 124 103
    59 E-Class Diesel 91 80 60 593
    60 Cayenne S E-Hybrid 89 111 88 72
    61 5-Series Diesel 82 74 65 106
    62 Beetle Diesel 78 96 114 129
    63 A7 Diesel 78 64 60 30
    64 Jetta Hybrid 66 55 41 45
    65 ELR 62 116 104 92
    66 A8 Diesel 45 28 24 35
    67 Panamera S E-Hybrid 34 21 30 44
    68 RLX Hybrid 27 24 15 18
    69 Malibu Hybrid 27 2 4 8
    70 Impala Hybrid 24 53 49 29
    71 i 23 18 16 10
    72 Promaster Van Diesel 22 25 18 23
    73 Regal Hybrid 17 23 28 21
    74 Regal Hybrid 17 23
    75 Q70 Hybrid 12 14 15 22
    76 GS 450h 7 8 12 9
    77 Q5 Hybrid 5 17 7 9
    78 ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih) 5 5 2 3
    79 ML Class Diesel 5
    80 ML450H 5
    81 Accord Plug In 4 5 5 5
    82 Tahoe Hybrid 4 1
    83 Escalade Hybrid 3
    84 Touareg Hybrid 2 6 0 3
    85 Yukon Hybrid 2 3 3 3
    86 ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) 2 2 1 3
    87 LS 600h 1 7 5 7
    88 ILX Hybrid 1 4 2 4
    89 7-Series ActiveHybrid 1
    90 Sierra Hybrid 1
    91 RAV4 EV 0 4 4 4
    92 E400H 0 2 0 13
    Source: Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Market Dashboard - HybridCars.comHybridCars.com (well worth reading!)
    • Way to go Tesla
    • Camry Hybrid did good too
    • Prius c - what happened?
    • Golf Sportswagon diesel - most improved, nice.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Jul 2, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2015
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  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    First half of the year looks pretty bad. I'm hoping for a recovery next year with the gen IV Prius and some other updates

    January -June hybrids (first half)
    2012 - 217,688
    2013 - 257,820, +18.4%
    2014 - 232,768, -9.7%
    2015 - 190,970, -18.8%
     
    #2 austingreen, Jul 2, 2015
  3. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    I counted about 80 distinct alt fuel vehicles on the chart and the combined take rates are 4%. There are about 275 models of all vehicles sold in US. Seems most alt fuel vehicle models might fall into the 'sales flop' category. Oh that's right, they are alternative vehicles many of which a few people want, some of which a modest number want and a couple models a lot of people want.
     
    #3 cycledrum, Jul 3, 2015
  4. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    We have very few models made exclusively for hybrid.
    prius liftback/v
    prius c
    ct200h
    honda insight
    honda cr/v

    And that is it. The c-max is a european tall car designed for gas first. I would say the prius liftback/v, the prius c, and the lexus ct200h are successful the insight and cr-v a flop.


    We look down and we get
    camry
    fusion
    sonat
    c-max
    accord
    avalon
    optima

    and all of those are very success cars in the US. The c-max if you count european and energi sales is also very sucessful. With lower gas prices people are buying the gasoline version in higher percentages over the hybrid.

    The big driver though is the liftback which is an old design. Its hard to look at these poor numbers without adjusting for the prius needing an update, and it will get one this year.

    Likewise the designed for plug status cars are doing well for initial adopter cars.
    Porsche 918 limited production to 918 and priced at over $600,000 a copy with options sold out every one.
    bmw i8 is killing it for a new sports car. They can't make enough at $137K a pop.
    tesla's stock just popped again on better than expected sales in the quarter of over 11,000. That is killer for a car that starts at $70K
    The bmw i3 should hit 20,000 cars next year, enough to be profitable. Pretty great for a funky carbon fiber 4 seater.

    The volt and leaf are the disappointments, not doing as well as expected, but there is a bright spot. The volt gets a great redesign this year. The leaf more range as an option, and a redesign next year. Neither is a flop. Both companies just got a little wrong but falling battery prices and market knowledge should help.

    The ford energis do well for being derivitives of their gas cars.

    The prius phv under performed like the leaf and volt. I would say this is the flop catagory, but I'm hoping there is a good redesign next year.
     
    #4 austingreen, Jul 3, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2015
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  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I predict "Autoline Daily" will have a piece declaring the Prius dead and I'll post a comment with the actual sales numbers.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #5 bwilson4web, Jul 3, 2015
  6. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    First half is over, so that's an exciting data point, but we don't get California % sales until about August 15th from CNCDA.org. So far the trends have been pointing to higher and higher % sales in Ca. for example hybrids reaching over 30% in Ca. which is remarkable and plug-ins heading over 50%.
     
    #6 wjtracy, Jul 3, 2015
  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I would think the US oil consumption would be more important than california. California has
    1) Higher taxas for oil and diesel
    2) Better commutes for hybrids
    3) higher incentives for plug-ins

    Its a very important place for hybrids and plug-ins but national number are more important for the country. Future is more important than the past. I hope the redesigns of plug-ins and hybrids get them out of this small market share position.

    If we eliminate light trucks (pick ups, suvs, crossovers, minivans) I see 4.6%penetration for hybrid. The light truck market doesn't really kick into cafe until 2020. Here perhaps plug-ins get high penetration at the high end. A small turbo v6 phev, might give both better towing and acceleration than a v8 but much better city and highway mileage too in charge sustain mode.
     
    #7 austingreen, Jul 3, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2015
  8. inferno

    inferno Senior Member

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    Crazy, very crazy that Tesla is up there in 3rd when it's 3x as much as a Prius. How many of those can get bought considering I would say only the top 1% (maybe 5%) can afford them...
     
    #8 inferno, Jul 7, 2015
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Yes but surveys have shown Prius owners are:
    • older
    • financially well off
    • Prius women are strong
    • Prius men are good-looking
    • all the Prius children are above average
    We're the type of customers many car makers would love to have . . . except perhaps . . . So Detroit, some auto reviewers, and energy companies have and continue to spend time running us down.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #9 bwilson4web, Jul 7, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2015
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  10. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...I think you may be confusing Prius owners with Lake Wobegon residents
     
    #10 wjtracy, Jul 7, 2015
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Top 10% of incomes was $114,000/year easily enough to buy a tesla. Many lower than this have wealth instead of income to buy a model S. Those that can afford the model S of course is much higher than 10% of the new car buyers. The lowest 50% made $33,000 or less, that is lower than the cut off of new prius buyers, but some do buy new cars.

    The Luxury market was 9.6% of car sales last year. Toyota/Lexus has gone after this with hybrids - the ESh, RXh, ISh, GSh, LSh avalon hybrid. These hybrids don't do as well in Luxury market as the plug-ins. Tesla plans a more affordable car (model 3) to be made in volume in 2018 which should be less expensive than all those lexus hybrids when home charger installation and fuel are considered. That model 3 should be affordable to the top 30% of the new car market (but just because you can afford it doesn't mean you want to buy it).

    Gen IV prius is a totaly different market, but should attract high income and weath individuals as well, but these are not luxury buyers.
     
    #11 austingreen, Jul 7, 2015
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  12. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    June 2015 Japan Ranking!
    #1 Aqua - 18,087
    #2 Corolla - 13,542
    #3 Prius - 10,921
    #4 Fit - 10,750
    #5 Voxy Toyota - 9,052
     
    #12 Sergiospl, Jul 8, 2015
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  13. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    10 Ways Internal Combustion Vehicles Are Getting Cleaner And Greener - HybridCars.com

    Very good chance I may be out of the electrified car game within a year, and not necessarily because I want to get out. It's because I've yet to see a really good all-around, affordable electrified car. These days one needs to be willing to pay more for an electrified car while compromising on trunk / cargo space, or put up with Toyota's 'Japanese sized' seats for example (Camry, Prius)

    Not surprised so many buy trucks and SUVs, CUVs because many buyers like roomier vehicles fit for bigger, taller people and easier ingress, egress.
     
    #13 cycledrum, Jul 10, 2015
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    agreed, and at 3 bucks a gallon, it's all very affordable.

    alt fuel vehicles are a sacrifice made for current and future generations. not much external appreciation for that. you need your own internal justifications.
     
    #14 bisco, Jul 10, 2015
  15. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    As Austin mentioned, the luxury car market is quite sizable, and the Tesla is not limited to the top 1% or even 5%.

    Other than price, there are no sacrifices when buying an EV as opposed to a hybrid.
    For this reason, plugins as a group will continue to grow. I believe they will surpass the hybrid market share. If gas spikes, hybrids may keep a larger market share than plugins, but they will not hold that, simply because people who don't give a damn about energy efficiency or gas are buying plugins as well.
     
    #15 Zythryn, Jul 10, 2015
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Nice find:
    Left off the list are my favorites:
    1. Topper systems - use exhaust and engine coolant heat to extract heat for additional energy. These can easily handle engine and vehicle overhead loads. Overhead loads tax the cars regardless of speed so they help in urban driving.
    2. Transmission integrated starter motor/generator - instead of being used for a couple of seconds, these ~3-5 hp motors have enough power to start the engine and handle some low-power modes. Best of all, they can scale up and overlap hybrid modes with urban speed, EV modes. Multi-mode, they can also replace the alternator. Before ignition interlock safety systems, Mom taught us that in 1st gear, the starter motor can move the car out of harms way.
    3. Higher vehicle voltage - this reduces (I**2)R loss and reduces the size and weight of the electrical power wiring. I like 400 Hz, 110 VAC because it simplifies and reduces the buck regulators.
    4. Eliminate the belts - AC, power steering, and engine coolant should be driven by the load, not parasite the engine.
    Bob Wilson
     
    #16 bwilson4web, Jul 10, 2015
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  17. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...furthermore, petroleum prices are crashing as we speak with media outlets talking $1 "handle" on pump price by Xmas.

    Several months ago I predicted here we might see as low as $1.00 in some states by Feb_2016 and suddenly looks like I have a shot at it. I am not hoping for this, just being realistically pessimistic. Maybe I am a little too extreme, but I fear not. Look at nat gas price to see the new energy paradigm we are experiencing.
     
    #17 wjtracy, Jul 10, 2015
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    1. There are hybrid turbochargers. These are an electric supercharger, exhaust turbine generator, and a battery. The impediment to them and other systems of getting electricity from the waste heat of a car is cost at the moment. It might become possible in the future, but isn't being put into play yet.
    2. This is a very mild hybrid, which is why the article likely skipped it.;)
    3. There was talk of going to a 48 volt system with the increasing draw of car accessories, but those accessories got efficient enough for the 12 volt system. Some mild hybrid systems coming out are 48 volt, so it may come up again.
    4. Yep, something the article missed. Nearly every model out there uses electric power steering, or likely will on the next redesign. With increase use of start/stop systems, ICE cars will start shifting to electric AC compressors. The gen3 ICE already uses a direct drive coolant pump. I haven't checked, but it is a good bet other manufacturers are doing the same with their newer engine designs.
     
    #18 Trollbait, Jul 10, 2015
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  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    nice bob. your number 2) is included in their #5 Stop-start systems.

    Your #1, I have no idea. Does it save much energy?

    Number 3 really doesn't matter much unless you have electric AC (4). EPS is already in most new cars, and if you include maintenance is less expensive along with more efficient. Its problem is "feel" but porsche and bmw are on it, and tech trickles down, which means feel may get better than hydraulic soon (less expensive, more reliable, and performs better). Electric AC though is more expensive which is part of the premium for hybrids and plug-ins. As that price premium drops, absolutely 2,3,and 4 all go with start-stop, hybrids, and phevs (all are stop stop systems).

    Prices of both high voltage batteries (lithium) and electric AC will fall as manufacturers aim to meet the 2025 emissions. That means a higher percentage of cars in the US will be doing all those things.
     
    #19 austingreen, Jul 10, 2015
  20. strongbad

    strongbad Member

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    I can't help but wonder how the hybrid cars that we can't buy in NA would sell. I'm thinking of the hybrid Fit especially and the hybrid Mazdas also. How would the 10th gen Honda Civic hybrid (with the scaled-down 2-motor Accord drivetrain) sell? I suppose we'll never know since it was cancelled.
     
    #20 strongbad, Jul 12, 2015
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