http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27140 I do think there are other reasons car companies are interested in lithium batteries going forward, namely reducing their dependence on oil. The car companies know very well that if there is a shortage of the black stuff for whatever reason (peak oil, geopolitics etc) their business doesn't look good. They are finally waking up to this fact and the very beginnings of a shift away from oil are at least being talked about. The other interesting point this brings up is the poor ability to recycle lithium batteries. This to me is a key issue. Unless battery technology is at least somewhat sustainable we are just switching one dependency for another. I have yet to find any concrete facts on exactly what % can be recycled from lithium batteries. I know lead acid batteries are pretty successfully recycled at the moment.
That is a very scary article indeed. I've read stories about people buying up global reserves of other commodities and putting the price up to ten times normal. Not good if it's that easy to do for lithium!
I tried unsuccessfully to get my hands on the following article, which might further explain lithium situation. Anybody have 'Resources Policy' in their libraries? Here's the abstract: Resources Policy Volume 30, Issue 3 , September 2005, Pages 218-231 doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2005.09.001 Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved. The lithium industry: Its recent evolution and future prospects Arlene Ebenspergera, Philip Maxwellb, , and Christian Moscosoc aAtacama Resource Capital project, Department of Mining Engineering, University of Chile, Av Tupper 2069, Santiago, Chile bMineral Economics program, Western Australian School of Mines, Curtin University of Technology, GPO Box U1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia cMineral Economics program, Department of Mining Engineering, University of Chile, Av Tupper 2069, Santiago, Chile Received 3 August 2004; revised 18 August 2005; accepted 8 September 2005. Available online 24 November 2005. Abstract During the past decade there has been considerable change in the world lithium industry. This paper discusses this change and reflects on likely future developments. Lithium carbonate producers, based in Northern Chile, now play a dominant role in world production. One focus of the discussion is on the current structure of the industry, particularly at the level of the early stages of production. After considering potential growth in lithium consumption in the foreseeable future, the latter part of the paper considers relevant public policy issues concerning the future regulation of the Chilean industry. Keywords: Lithium; Mineral supply; Mineral demand; Vertical integration; Predatory pricing; Limit pricing; Public policy issues Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 8 9266 7757; fax: +61 8 9266 3764.
The author spends a lot of time in an anti-hybrid diatribe filled with half-truths. Leaves me doubting the entire article. The hybrid auto manufacturers have indeed been considering a switch to lithium batteries and have been waiting for safety/size/cost issues to be ironed out. If there really was a looming lithium shortage, all of the other anti-hybrid-ers out there would have picked up on it long ago.
I think ROC might be a good stock to pick up on. The demand for Li is only going in one direction and it isn't down.
