"So how far away is meaningful market share for electric vehicles? Certainly no one can be sure, but the Electrification Coalition offered its opinion earlier this week. According to AutoBlog, the coalition calls for plug-ins to make up 25% of the market by 2020."
Sounds about right. Biggest factor right now is battery technology - primarily cost. Battery prices need to drop about 3-4x (target price $100-$150 per kWh of capacity) before we will see mass adoption. That would put a pack with a 300 mile range between $7,500-$10,000. Compare that to the estimated $35,000 cost of the Tesla pack today. At the rate that battery price is dropping, we should be there in about 10 years. And here's an article I just found to back me up: http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=220100494
Even the Prius (and all hybrids for that matter) only has < 5% market share, so it'll be a long way out. Toyota odly enough may still hold market share, what with several hundred RAV4-EV's running around the landscape. The power company yard just a couple miles from here has a bunch, as does the university of CA, Irvine. I wonder if/when Tesla will pass their number.
Tesla has probably already passed them by a substantial margin. Tesla has shipped around 1000 units - I think there's only a couple hundred RAV4-EVs running around.
