The upcoming earthquake in Chile...

...the local Chilean radio stations been playing Carol King's song "I Feel the Earth Move" lately?

 

Good call
8.0 today.
Im convinced it was csused by the recent X class solar flare.
Same as occured before the Japan quake.

 

Earthquakes

 

ammo, any tips for santa anita?

 

The BIG one is coming...sooner or later.

 

I recall earlier when mojo suggested links between solar activity and earthquakes, suggesting that it would be simple enough to look for the correlation. Turns out to have been done.

Love, J. J., and J. N. Thomas (2013), Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1165–1170, doi:10.1002/grl.50211.

“We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by chi-squared and Student’s t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.”

So that is the major point. The minor point is to suggest using the word 'trigger' instead of 'cause'. Because we know well enough what causes earthquakes. The earth's crust is locally in relative motion, and strain builds up between chunks. That strain is most often released as rapid motions.

On this latest, the tsunami warning appears limited to the Chile/Peru area.

 

A tsunami advisory is in effect for the Hawaiian Islands till some time tomorrow morning.

The surge is expected to be small though, somewhere in the 1 foot range, and isn't expected to cause any inundation and flooding.

SCH-I535

 

Yes, I couldn't see logically how there could possibly be any connection.

I think we had a tsunami warning very briefly this morning- I heard something on the radio when I was in the shower - but I think they've dropped it now.

 

hkmb, perhaps you don't know of mojo's role as acolyte for Piers Corbyn here. Aside from that, the first step would be to demonstrate a durable correlation, and then present some mechanism for others to examine. Love & Thomas looked for the first and did not find. Someone else could, no doubt, look more closely.

But "I am convinced" after N=1 or 2 is not the way science is done, and those proclaiming so put themselves up for closer examination. Not my problem; theirs.

Just between us, the mechanism for lunar cycles vs earthquakes is much more plausible because it really does 'stretch' the earth via tidal forces. Were I to look for correlations, it would be there.

Chile/Peru are by no means done with large earthquakes, that plate margin is screaming along (relatively) at something like 7 cm/year and long stretches of the faults have yet to release their accumulated stresses. The next trigger will be...what? Do we care? is it not enough to realize that more large events are going to happen, and to prepare for them as well as economic realities allow?

This is not so dissimilar to our climate/extreme events discussions. Stuff happens, we have substantial knowledge about where, and prepare usually costs less than repair. Gawd I wish I had said that first.

 

Lateral fault displacements under sea can trigger tsunami by means of landslides 'down there'. Super hard to predict. Vertical fault displacements under sea can trigger tsunami all by themselves, see Indo 2008.

Not sure at all that this is a suitable topic for Fred.

 

Ah, no. I was only aware of Mojo's conviction that the whole climate change thing was a lie made up to enable to the UN to install a World Government and inflict socialism on freedom-loving Americans. I hadn't realised he was doing the solar activity thing too.

I, on the other hand, have identified and demonstrated a durable correlation involving solar activity. People who think solar activity causes earthquakes tend to also think that it explains away climate change, and they tend to believe conspiracy theories about Secret Plans For A World Government and Fema camps and stuff.

Thanks for that. And, in response to your other post, this is just the place for this sort of detailed earthquake information.

 

hkmb, I imagine you were kidding there, but if not, what is the "durable correlation involving solar activity"?

Now technology has become so 'fast' that it can get a message to your cell phone seconds (minutes) before the earthquake's P wave gets to you. Depends on your distance from the rupture. This actually works, and allows trains, elevators, and other sensitive equipment to be 'safed' before the shaking starts. Unless you are too close to the epicenter.

Seems like tech worth investing in. No substitute for having (and following) appropriate building codes in areas known for seismic or soil liquifaction risks. According to news media, Chile has tough building codes. do not know about Peru. US has them (locally) but in S. Calif. a lot of old wobbly masonry structures are grandfathered in. And Asia, weeeellllllll...

 

Solar activity = UN Conspiracy For A World Government = Socialism.

Obviously.

I think Islam is involved in there somehow too. And free healthcare.

This sounds like an excellent system.

Taiwan's newer buildings are very earthquake proof (Have you been up Taipei 101, with its big hanging counterbalance ball thing?), but I would very much not fancy being in one of the old concrete buildings in Taipei during a serious earthquake - I've been in one for a minor earthquake, and that was scary enough.

Japan seems to have good systems in place.

It's times like that that living in one of the most geologically-inert places in the world is very reassuring.

 

I was so indirect in my reference to Asia that even hkmb did not detect what I was going on about. Mission accomplished.

Taiwan is an interesting location because it scores high on both earthquakes and hurricanes. Wrong shape for tornadoes though. Too krinkly.

Australia is so tectonically inert that it has lost most of its phosphorus to erosion. The downside to such calm is that eventually crops don't grow very well. This suggests that some intermediate level of 'disruptions' is beneficial. But there I go, dumbing down biogeochemistry. Must be contagious.

 

I don't understand the possibility of a causal relationship between solar activity and earthquakes. However, China will launch a a satellite to study EM variation in the ionosphere (500 km)

China preps satellite to help detect quakes

From this article one gets the impression that the signals are upwelling. But it would help if someone could locate a review on the topic.

 

?

Yes, I've dealt with earthquakes and typhoons there. This was in the days before the Internet was good, so preparing for a typhoon involved a battle for supplies: you had to fight through the approaching storm to the DVD shop to make sure you'd have something to do. Booze was also useful.

Yes, it's a difficult place to farm. More and more Australian farmers are using zero-tilling methods, as well as all the usual crop rotation and stuff, in order to keep the land fertile. They're discovering that European farming methods don't work here, and they're (finally, after 200 years) realising that they have to adapt.

 

Australia P fertilizer use seems to be quite down since a peak in 1998

Fertilizer Australia

Is farm production also down, or has efficiency improved?