Featured Toyota says it's too early for electric car transition

Fair enough. I say it is too late for Toyota.

Bob Wilson

 

Some sort of paywall, or maybe upset by my ad blocker: I can see first few lines and then subsequent fade out. No obvious way to disable. Considering mainly the headline:

There are significant technical issues to widespread adoption, and an infrastructure that can’t change overnight. Too, something might eclipse the the current electrical car ownership mission, say autonomous taxis and transit. Who knows, the wheels still in spin.

what I see daily is mostly gassers.

 

You pour your home's slab foundation in a 50-year flood zone, & yea ... it's too late to build it up on posts - too. could have -would have should have .....
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I was able to pause my blocker and reload the page.

""It is too early," Mr Hanley said. "What battery electric vehicle do we have right now on sale in Australia that can tow 2.5 tonnes for 600km? We don't. It doesn't exist.

"If we just move to (battery electric)-only zero-emission vehicles, what are you going to tell the hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Australians who tow caravans, who use their cars for work, who need their cars on the land, who need their cars in the mine, who need more than a 200 or 300km range?"" - from the article

North America is not a big EV market. I suspect we are number three simply because we one of the largest car markets overall. For the 2023 and 2024 model year, Fueleconomy.gov has over a hundred entries for all electric cars. Of those, just two of those have less than 300km of EPA range. Of those, one is less than 200km(Leaf and Mini). The BEV Toyota does have goes farther than 300km. And these are under a harder test than what Australia uses.

The BMW iX is rated to tow that 2.5 tonnes in Australia. Many other EV models have a tow rating there. His 600km is along the lines of the "500 miles and 15 minute charge time". Having a battery that big for occasional use is costly and wasteful. The BMW just needs adequate charging infrastructure. Granted that is lacking in many places, but no one is proposing to ban ICE sales next year.
Can an Electric Car Tow a Caravan or Boat? | RAC WA

Australia's EV Strategy is to increase the EV selection available, improve infrastructure, and look into ways of speeding up adoption. While a couple states have ZEV mandates, it isn't part of the national level at this time.
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/australias-first-national-electric-vehicle-strategy

Hanley's hyperbole is simply because Toyota doesn't have many EV options, and the supply is already limited. Australia finally adopting a fuel economy standard like CAFE might also risk stressing their hybrid supply.

 

i wonder if mr. hanley will get a call from the new toyota head of electrification

 

What percentage of vehicles ever tow a trailer? I wouldn't enter that in my buying criteria because, for the rare time when I might want more capacity, I'd rent a truck. Just as when I went on a 6 persons plus luggage for a week with beach chairs, etc trip I rented a mini-van. The cost was about $150 one time charge and I figure I saved that every month by not buying the capability but renting it.

 

In Europe, and perhaps Australia, those could actually use a pick up usually opt for a car plus trailer. Cars there do have tow ratings, though different regulations lead to different limits than in the US. So someone wanting to tow with an EV isn't far fetched.

 

Why is Toyota so dishonest about EV so often? They're doomed with this line of thinking... And I got some data to prove it!

In this chart below you can see how in China where there's long been massive incentives/subsidies to produce electric cars Toyota fell on its face in the middle of last year when they could have ramped up production and could of become the top EV car seller in China.

But as always, Toyota spends more time making excuses for why the EV transition is unrelastic rather than actually competing with other EV makers in a substantive way. It's all talk and no action when it comes to Toyota advancing their companies future in an era where internal combustion engines are going to banned from being sold in new cars world-wide in less than 20 years...

 

Hanley's statements seem pretty even-handed to me...

•at least thousands of Australians would want to tow with their cars and there isn't a practical replacement BEV on anyone's horizon.

Okay... thousands. Maybe we just shouldn't make a big deal about thousands of tow vehicles? Nothing in there about not being able to replace lots more ordinary cars that don't tow.

The Greenpeace campaigner was quoted as saying Toyota is "pushing for petrol cars" which is at best a disingenous exaggeration.

The guy isn't pushing for them; he's saying he can't yet produce a suitable alternative.

But that's modern news for ya: It won't be trending unless it's offending.

 

he's not saying he can't produce them, he's saying bev's aren't yet practical. he's speaking in the now, with no consideration for the future.

greenpeace is saying that toyota keeps lobbying governments to push back mandates, which is absolutely true.
toyota know that they need more time than most every other legacy maker to be able to produce mass bev's.

 

He is pushing against the EV Strategy, which, honestly, isn't much of anything at the moment. He's fighting the idea that the Australian federal government might start supporting EVs in some manner.

 

now this company is willing to put it on the line:

ford-loses-nearly-60000-for-every-electric-vehicle-sold

 

So it isn't much of anything by your account, and isn't even mentioned in that article.

I'm okay with taking your word for it that he's doing this, but I don't think it diminishes the claim that Toyota can't produce like-for-like electric replacements for all current applications. A few would be left out. That's not even a very big claim.

I see they have a diesel Hilux SR5 that can tow 3500kg for A$62k. 600km unreplenished range sounds plausible though I wasn't able to find the spec.

Do you contend that they can change the word in red to "electric," and keep the rest the same? Or do we have to go soft on the "like-for-like" part?

 

Excactly... And when he's saying "they aren't practical" he's saying it while his company "in the now" is by every measure falling behind of every other major auto maker who are all in on ensuring that EV is the biggest ever disruption to auto manufacturing.

Or as Bob Dylan once said, "It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."

 

Think of what their biz analysts are saying regarding long-term financial projections for EV sales for them to be willing to start out at that level of loss just to be able to get that ball rolling?

 

"But he(Hanley) said the view that vehicle pollution should be cut by electric vehicles alone was "simplistic" and would leave some motorists without like-for-like replacements."
Maybe the article left out some nuance from what he said, but I was taking his like-for-like comments about the car market in general, not specific to Toyota. His statements were also coming across to me in absolute terms of an ICE ban in a short period of time.

He was conflating Australia's EV Strategy and Fuel Economy Standard. If the fuel economy metric is fairly determined on energy consumed or CO2 emitted, it will give EVs an advantage. It is a simple fact; look at the US mpg and mpge values for CAFE. The AUS government's on the fuel economy standard in reference to the EV strategy are simply pointing that out. They do see the standard as a tool to help the strategy, just like the US uses CAFE, but Australia is past do for having a fuel economy standard for any car.

These are the next steps of the EV Strategy:
Work is already underway. All 8 Australian states and territories have agreed to 6 key areas of national collaboration with the Australian Government to encourage the uptake of EVs:

• National standards
• Data sharing
• EV affordability
• Remote and regional EV charging infrastructure
• Fleet procurement
• Education and awareness.

https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/australias-first-national-electric-vehicle-strategy
full pdf https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-electric-vehicle-strategy.pdf

The Strategy's endgame might be 100% ZEV, but Australia is just starting out here. The first priority is the fuel economy standard. Yes, it will help with an EV transition, but statements about the standard also focus on facts like Australia's car fuel economy average is worse than the US's(saw 20% somewhere). Toyota's concerns on having like-to-like replacements today simply aren't relevant to where the Strategy is at now.

It's crying that there isn't an EV pick up available back when California first announced 100% ZEV by 2035. There is a good selection of like-to-like for many car types and uses. More if we do go a soft like-to-like. Those numbers are improving over time. As is the technology. So when the feared ICE ban actually does go into effect, this isn't an issue.

Maybe they are really concerned about their large SUV and truck sales in regards of a fuel economy standard. Wouldn't be the first time Toyota stood against higher fuel economy standards.

Surprised no mention of hydrogen or FCEV from Toyota. What, they can't spare any of that brown coal hydrogen for the locals?

 

Which means sometime it will not be too early. My prediction is when materials are being recycled, Redwood Materials was saying 95% from lithium ion, things will change. This includes the millions of other devices other than electric vehicles, billions. You could reuse your battery casing and many other parts and they install new batteries which are 95% made from old batteries, including discarded cell phone and power tool batteries. I would guess for a reasonable sum like 10% of a completely new material battery, you drive away with the same new battery from recycled material. Go another 15 years, or you don’t even live long enough to outlast it. Very little little mining in the new battery. Then it gets recycled again and again.
Too many naysayers not looking at the future only the present. It’s like looking at a 1903 Oldsmobile and saying that’s no good, not realizing it isn’t staying like that forever.