yup saw that today too... wondering how old this article is.... since they claim to have sold how many 2004's so far??
How many hybrids are out there now? I would think that they are only counting the Toyota hybrids, correct? I still think that the Honda series must be included in all hybrids. When Ford arrives it is in GM in my book is out but I would like to see all cars in the US using a similar system using a stop start system to save a bit of gas.
I forsee that almost all cars will slowly incorporate the shut offs at stop lights with small electric motors to get started, maybe over the next 3 years or so. That will be the first step for GM and the European makers and they will do this so they can say they are in the hybrid business too. They simply can't let on that they actually got left in the dust by Toyota and Honda. Then they will slowly incorporate more of the hybrid technology over time into their cars. It will be done piecemeal. Toyota and Honda will proceed differently. I suspect Toyota & H will add a total hybrid version to each line of car they already have, until they so perfect the technology that ONLY the hybrid version will make sense. Then they will over time retire the ICE alone versions. Why do I say this when all the so called experts predict much slower growth for the hybrid? The main reason is the price of gas. All I hear is how the world is close to our limits in terms of production. Yet China is reportedly exploding in growth right now. The law of supply and demand requires the price to skyrocket. Right now, the $6,000+ premium for the hybrid takes about 60,000 miles to get your money back. But that's at $2 per gallon. At $4 per gallon the return comes at 30,000 miles. And at $5 per gallon.... etc etc. (And to those who say we should be drilling more American oil, I say leave the American oil in the ground until the middle east oil is gone. Use up their product first. Only then should we consider going after our oil. It just makes strategic sense.) And I picked the $6,000+ premium number on purpose. I know Toyota says the premium is about $3,000. Does anyone believe that? There is no doubt in my mind that I'm driving a $35,000 car. And over time, the premium you pay for the hybrid will come down. So you have two economic forces making the hybrid the ONLY logical choice. It may take 10 years, but it will happen. The Lexus 400h, Highlander and the Volta will speed the whole process up immensely. And I haven't even mentioned the emissions and just how much better gas/electric performs.
it is no longer a question of choosing where we get our oil... we use our oil because we have to. OPEC is running at or near capacity most of the time. they simply sell more of their oil to others now because they are willing to pay for it. the only reason they continue to sell to us is because they are afraid of us. (the other reason is that american money is practically the world money standard. the american dollar is the most widely accepted currancy in the world) they can make a lot more money selling their oil to other countries that are willing to pay more money for it. but at the same time, they know that we play the role of big brother, mediator, and social conscious for the world. i think that many in OPEC realize that if we go down, they are sitting ducks.
Actually, I'm pretty sure that THE ONLY currency that is allowed to purchase oil anywhere in the world is the American dollar. It has to do with commodity markets. That is true in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and even in Iran. Also true of the English Channel oil. If you want oil from Norway or England, you pay for it in dollars. Russian oil? US dollars. So if you’re Japanese and want Saudi oil, you pay for it in American dollars. But even if Japan wants to buy Saudi oil, I'm not sure it works like that. I think buyers buy from brokers on the commodity markets. So Japan might order 50 million gallons from a broker, and then the broker will buy 50 million gallons worth of oil from Saudi Arabia, but the broker might in fact end up delivering Alaskan oil to Japan because of where the tankers are at the time, and send the Saudi oil to Virginia. This might be cheaper from a global perspective than sending Alaskan oil to Virginia and Saudi oil to Japan. In fact, Putin commented a few months ago about possibly starting to sell oil in Euros. I'm sure that threat sent a shiver through the Bush administration, and I'm also sure that that is exactly the reason Putin said it. Who knows what promise he got to put THAT idea aside. It's similar to English being the only legal language among airline pilots and ground controllers. It's required. Even when a Saudi Pilot is talking to a Saudi ground controller. They must speak English. And that is because pilots in other planes may be listening, and for safety, all those conversations must be transparent for all.
And although I don't know a lot about how the commodity markets work, I do know that most of the oil that comes out of Alaska goes to Japan via tanker. And that has to do with the fact that most of the oil that America uses is needed in Texas and the East Coast of the USA. The American west coast gets some of it, but not a lot. And there is no way a tanker can go through the Panama Canal nor is it safe to go around South America. Those currents are too harsh. So Japan is where it goes. And most USA East coast oil comes from the Middle East. Going around Africa is a lot safer than going around South America. But I'm pretty sure that Japan does not pay the USA nor does the USA pay the Middle East. Instead, Japan pays the broker, in US dollars, and most of those dollars go to the Middle East, even though the oil comes from Alaska. Then the middle east oil shows up on the East coast of the USA but it shows up there as an "Alaskan oil equivalent." So the Japanese get listed on the books as being a major importer of Middle East oil, even though the oil physically comes from Alaska. But the Alaskan oil gets credited as being used by Americans, even though it physically comes from the Middle East. Of course, we also import more from the Middle East than we ship to Japan from Alaska, so we also give money to brokers that goes to the Middle East. I know its not intuitive, but I'm almost positive this is how it works. If anyone else can explain it better or correct my inaccuracies, I'd appreciate it.
One of the things that prompted action in Iraq was that they started selling their oil in euros in 2000. That went down extremely badly with the US government, which is reliant on the dollar being the reserve currency for international trade. Without other countries needing to buy the dollar for such transactions, its value would collapse, probably taking the US economy with it. America couldn't afford for other oil producers to follow their example, so they had to teach Iraq a lesson. I don't think any other countries will be trying that again in the near future. Of course, Bush's massive trade and budget deficits have made the sustainability problem even worse. America is nearly bankrupt.
actually 80 % of the oil in alaska goes to the west coast of the US... the 20 % that goes to asia is to serve the huge US military presence in the area.
Between this morning and just now I've spent about 3 hours studying world oil distribution and I still have little idea of where it all goes. There is both current and old data on the DOE web site and there is also conflicting data all around. However, the USA seems to EXPORT about 200,000 barrels a day of crude oil and 3/4 of that goes to Japan. I can't find any evidence that Alaskan oil mostly goes to Japan like I said in my post above so I stand corrected. However, there is a lot of data on how the oil one country buys from another may not actually come from another because it depends on the shortest shipping routes. And I'm not sure that we send 20% of Alaskan oil to Asia for American Military facilities like you say Dave. What comes out of Alaska is crude but what our military facilities need is gasoline and deisel and jet fuel, etc. But right now, the USA produces about 8 million barrels per day while Saudi Arabia produces about 9 million. (Again this is DOE data that is from June 2004. What is happening today might be different because a lot has happened in world oil markts since June.) The USA imports about 7 million barrels per day and this is about 50% from OPEC and 50% from non OPEC like Africa and Norway and Canada and Mexico. And of the 50% from OPEC, about 40% is from Venezeula and Indonesia and the other 60% is from the MIddle East. This is from the DOE site http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petrole...96/CHAPTER4.PDF and here http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petrole...ics/default.htm (Not all the info I'm refering to comes from these two sites so if you want to check my figures, you need to click around. And you will find seemingly conflicting data even on the DOE site.) Based upon what I've just read I feel even more strongly that the USA should not increase production or drilling until a lot more Middle East oil is gone. And I make this suggestion on the basis of strategic (by that I mean military and or security) reasons even though economically it might hurt us. These DOE sites estimate USA reserves as tiny compared to the Middle East reserves and they include estimates of oil in the Arctic Refuge and off the USA East and West Coasts in areas where drilling is currently banned. It makes no sense to me that the USA should use up it's reserves when all it would do is do some short term economic relief while in the long run run the risk of INCREASING our dependence on middle east oil. Bad enough that we import about 30% of our crude from the Arabs, can you imagine if we are someday forced to import 80%? So I say again, better to use up Middle East reserves and save ours for a rainy day. And who knows, maybe in 20 years, we will have extraction techniques that will keep our shores and protected lands pristine.
because there is no refineries in alaska, it would be foolish to ship it 2500 miles south to be refined then ship it 4000 miles to Japan where it would be used. (most of the islands like midway, the philiphines and okinawa are centrally located) when it can be shipped slightly over 2000 miles straight to japan from alaska. also, i think that the daily allotment has been increased like 75% since the war started. now using up someone else's oil is exactly what we are doing. nearly all the oil in our reserve is the result of the oil we get from alaska. but the facts are the world wide capacity for oil production is running at over 97% now so there is nearly no room for an increase that is why everyone is so eager to open up new fields in canada and russia. some scientists think that russia has more oil than the middle east, the north shore off great britain and south america combined. couple that with the fact that our reserve goal is not where we want it to be. the government set a goal of having a 180 day supply of oil in storage that would only be used for emergencies. well several times in the past 4 years we have dipped into that reserve to ease temporary shortages around the country, primarily in the winter when fuel oil shortages have threatened lives. the reserve sits at between 110-115 days from most recent reports that ive seen. many industry OUTSIDERS claim that oil companies manufactured shortages in order to drive up prices by shutting down producing wells that were running when the company that owned them was mergered or sold. the new owners claimed the wells did not produce well enough to make them worth while. some think that this is a ruse especially since oil companies want to explore more areas in the gulf to drill that are expected to be marginal producers at best. also the top oil importers to the us canada mexico venezuala saudi arabia alaska accounts for 40% of all oil used by us.
According to the DOE web site, we export only around 200,000 barrels of crude per day, but we export millions of barrels of refined products per day And we export those refined products to Asia and England and even France and the Netherlands. As well as numerous other countries. So it turns out we DO transport from Alaska to the mainland, and then refine it, and then send it on to quite distant countries.
