Source: http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-02520-7 Satellite temperature measurements do not support the recent claim of a “leveling off of warming” over the past two decades. Tropospheric warming trends over recent 20-year periods are always significantly larger (at the 10% level or better) than model estimates of 20-year trends arising from natural internal variability. Over the full 38-year period of the satellite record, the separation between observed warming and internal variability estimates is even clearer. In two out of three recent satellite datasets, the tropospheric warming from 1979 to 2016 is unprecedented relative to internally generated temperature trends on the 38-year timescale. An excellent review of the technology and data. Bob Wilson
"Of course, the authors know full well that the reason the pause/hiatus/leveling-off ended was due to a NATURAL event (El Nino)." Santer takes on Pruitt: The Global Warming Pause and the Devolution of Climate Science « Roy Spencer, PhD
Some of the data: Evaluation of claimed “leveling off” of warming in satellite temperature data. Results are for monthly-mean anomalies in the temperature of the mid- to upper troposphere (TMT), corrected for stratospheric cooling8 and spatially averaged over 82.5°N–82.5°S. The average of the latest satellite dataset versions (RSS v4.0, STAR v4.0, and UAH v6.0) has a warming trend of 0.181 °C/decade over the 456-month period from January 1979 to December 2016 (panel A). Maximally overlapping 20-year (240-month) trends in the six individual satellite TMT time series are plotted on the end month of the trend-fitting period (panel B). . . . Bob Wilson
We have previously examined temperature trends of El Nino, La Nina and neither-extreme years in instrumental records. All increase, and (lees intuitively) all have equal (similar) slopes. Same could be done with these satellite proxies, but less definitively because record is shorter. Radiosonde data assemblies are longer but present (to me) a confusing landscape. Apparently there is much disagreement about what data to include. But that thing called RATPAC is available for download (one must sign up for it). Then create 3 ENSO bins and away you go. Prof. Spencer is of curse entitled to his point of view.
