This should not be a surprise to anyone, hyundai has not been able to lease as many fcv as they had wanted. Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell Global Sales Below Target, Company Admits I am doubtful that a small niche product like the mirai will benefit much from Olympic promotion. It does benefit from lower expectations and more government money than the tucson, so its more likely to hit its numbers of 5700 by end of 2017. After that toyota has said they don't expect to increase production over the 3000 per year, until the next generation. That would give a total of 14,700 world wide mirai by 2020. I think they can do that, but in perspective ford sold over 60,000 f-series pick up trucks in the US just last month, and plug-ins sold 320,000 vehicles in 2014. The time for fcv will be in 2 generations or later if at all.
Could Toyota Mirai's hot demand and 2-year backlog undermine its success? Generally, I agree. This gen of FCVs are not for the mass and they are not targeting them. Next gen and beyond is to watch out for.
It could be sold out in Japan, but I think about two thirds of the orders are government or other fleet. When they are only building 3 a day, wait times can quickly pile up. Has there been any word of this delaying the North American launch. Mitsubishi canceled introduction of the Outlander PHV to the US when demand in other markets was higher than expected.
There are 2000 orders in Japan most or all are leases. Toyota production schedule is 700 in 2015, 2000 in 2016, and 3000 in 2017 and each year after if there is demand. The first year allocation for japan is 400 vehicles, 200 US, 100 rest of the world (but maybe japan claims them). Toyota needs to lease 3000 in the US for there estimated ZEV credits. Lets say Japan grabs 500 this year and the us 200. That leaves 2200 production to serve the other 1500 Japanese orders in 2016-2017, and the rest of the world. Of course if it doesn't lease in California, then the japanese government may not subsidize it so much in the future, as they want it to be an export. Still Toyota probably has enough clout to get those 3000 leased in the US. I suppose if demand is much higher, say 10,000 a year, toyota could increase production, but it says it will spend $168M on the factory, just to go from 700 a year to 3000/year. They need some breakthroughs to get manufacturing cost down to invest in higher producction rate, and that won't happen until the next generation. +1 Yes this is more of a pre-commercial vehicle. It is too expensive to make in large quantities. Key date in the US is 2018, when the zev bonus for fuel cells is supposed to expire. If it does most of the future first generation mirai and gen II clarity may end up in Japan. That is not necessarily a bad thing. It should provide a good enough pre-commercial test, to shake out the technology and manufacturing. Hyundai because of its government seems to want plug-ins more than fuel cell vehicles, may grab a back seat, and produce bevs for american and Korean markets. That may push them to join one of the other fc groups. bmw and mazda is partnered with toyota, gm with honda, and ford and mercedes with nissan. Everybody but vw group and hyundai have a Japanese fuel cell partner.
