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Environmental News

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Oct 22, 2015.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Chile rainfall is mapped and accessible (just like everywhere else) but we don't need to work that hard. Which side of the big mountains were they on? West or East?

    ==
    Do your due diligence on PV before signing anything. Not that I need to tell you... If your 100 acres (40 ha) is in the right place, you might be able to make such metaphorical hay while the sun shines. Maybe WA state is so into hydro that they don't subsidize PV?

    ==
    There are a zillion hectares of PV in China now, but not on Ag suitable land. That is esteemed and worked. Unless some well connected fella wants to build high rise apartments. But I digress. In Yunnan Province ag land is in excess to the extent that flowers are grown. Big export market. During the first drought I saw here (2010) folks were saying food shortage! and what not. I said "when y'all stop growing flowers I'll believe it"
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Before forests are cut for market, forest mensuration is done. There are some cool tricks for that ... another time.

    But forests not to be cut are measured in research plots all over the world. I'm presently pulling that info together, but that's not my point either. Instead I introduce to you ...

    FIA. The US' Forest Inventory and Analysis (Program). It appears to be the most extensive with >300,000 one-acre (0.4 ha) plots in all states and territories. Individual trees are identified to species and measured remeasured every 5 to 15 years. Costs about $80 million per year. Be proud tree huggers. US govt is doing some good stuff and has been for quite a while.

    Data are open access (19 million frickin' trees) unlike the European program (also large) where you need to say please and show a good reason why you need it.

    But here's the kicker. Exact locations of FIA plots are secret. Some are on private property, and none want yahoos going in to collect firewood or fine furniture wood. This combo of open and secret fascinates me. But FIA does darn good work.
     
  3. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Flight path was a direct line from CJC to SCL. I had a left side window seat, and an excellent view of Aconcagua to the east, though most of the PV fields were well before we had traveled that far south.

    WA residential PV incentives tapped out long ago, thanks to very high interest and adoption greatly exceeding local program limits. :) The first program became oversubscribed, with payments pro-rated, not long after I joined, and expired four years ago. A second state program is still paying out for a few more years, but hit its enrollment cap and closed almost immediately after opening. It did stay open longer than a Taylor Swift concert ticket sale, but not by much.

    But the family farm is not in WA, and 100-400 acres doesn't fit into any 10kW-max residential program. And mentioned lease rates are clearly too good to be realistic, no one is really going to pay more in annual rent than full purchase price, without some very major catches.

    Lots of second-growth forest on the family plot too, but nothing in FIA.

    (FWIW, the farm does include one of these grid points: FDSN: TA: USArray Transportable Array
    It would have been nice to have adopted our station to keep it operating in place, but that adoption program started after ours was pulled up and moved to its next assignment.)

    There is a lot of ag-poor land east of our Cascades that might be suitable. Various places with center-pivot irrigation also could put PV in the uncovered corners, especially those piled high with cleared rocks. Better corners could be packed less dense with PV, allowing plenty of sunlight to filter down for good pollinator habitats, as assists for the adjacent crops.

    Though I still have a preference towards putting PV over existing roofs and impervious surfaces, to minimize loss of flora habitat.
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  5. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Had to go read it just to find out what 'injectable' meant.

    What they're calling a syringe, I'm not sure I wouldn't just call a hand pump.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Water purification is the thing here, water pushing could be done in several ways. Polypropylene syringes are what the kids had I guess.
     
  7. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Sure, but you can call it something that doesn't make the reader go "I wonder what an injectable filter is? Where would I be injecting it?".
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Let's return to large things. Hadcrut5 has most recent global terrestrial surface average increasing 0.2 degrees C per decade. They do prior analyses and do not 'project' futures.
    I would not trouble readers with that, but N Scafetta (highly placed among non warmists) suggested recently at
    “Realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century | Climate Etc.
    0.21 to 0.30 degrees C per decade later in 21st century. I have not seen lower estimates carefully presented by non warmists. Higher estimated have been made by IPCC under higher fossil burn +CO2 scenarios
    But let us take Scafetta's median 0.23 degrees C per decade as truth for later in this century. It would mean 1.8 degrees C warmer than now in year 2100 Is that what you want? Consider:
    Current global climate models don't rain more water in areas we want, for Ag or for water-requiring thermal energy production. So, yeah different models! Show us.
    ==
    The human enterprise is more or less OK with 8 billions if we don't think about 2 billions lacking water, adequate food and energy. So that's ... OK I guess. But soon enough there will be 10 billions with most additions at the low end. More humans by any defensible definition of the word. So, what's your plan? You don't want to hear mine. It defunds billionaire,s and that's not even the worst of it.



     
  9. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    "Worst of it".....
    Aptly put.

    At the beginning of the 19th century, the number of 1 billion people was exceeded for the first time in history.
    That means that Einstein was.......'one in a billion.'
    So was Gandhi....Sir Tansley....and others.

    Human capital.
    If our 'super-power' is adaptability, then you're going to need a billionaire or two...AND some paupers. ;)
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    If it's like any lab I've worked in, there is a nice supply of them laying around. Though 1.5L ones appear to be used for industrial purposes, like sucking oil out of a differential, and not have the standard port for needles.

    Injectable is a bit odd, but membrane disc filters that work with syringes are a common lab tool. They are called syringe, aspiration, or injection filters. I use 0.2 micron ones to sterilize temperature sensitive solutions.

    They advancement with the hydrogel is in the reusability. A paper or polymer membrane one quickly clogs.
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Above is an example of the argument that more humans born lead to more (potential) geniuses. Hence more benefit for humanity. Hence a smaller number of humans born would lead to disbenefit form benefit for humanity. It must be true to some extent.


    The contrary argument is that humans born into poverty and with limited educational opportunities can miss out on their genius potential development. So population growth may not play out optimally for this goal. It must also be true to some extent.


    Readers can find their own way here. It is far from the only matter of concern when considering Human population of 8 billions heading for 10. All these people need things. Short list being air, water, food, energy and shelter.


    A planet that seemed infinite with 1 billion humans now does not. People who proclaim that are seen as catastrophists, chicken little, or protectors of the future of humanity. Depends on who is doing the seeing. But the point I always bang away on is that these challenges are all inter related. Picking one out to solve (or dismiss) simply won’t do.


    Addressing all as inter related is not yet a popular song, and may not be for a while. Similarly the notion that all problems look smaller for 4 billion people (to pick a number) than 8 billion is also not popular. Especially as so few volunteers arise for the 8 becoming 4 thing.


    It’s tough, OK? But farming geniuses from an ever-increasing herd is a narrow view of some very large problems.
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  13. drash

    drash Senior Member

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    So I don't usually watch StarTalk (Neil deGrasse Tyson YouTube channel) but one of his latest videos described how 2023 broke NASA's climate prediction model as the hottest year ever recorded, by a record margin of 0.15ºC (0.27ºF - 2016 was the previous record holder BTW). It appears, because of how we got so good at getting rid of pollution, we are 100% the cause of it along with the Solar Maximum. It's a good video of how NASA Goddard Institute, as illustrated by their climatologist, Gavin Schmidt, tracked the temperature increase and how they have to fix their model for future temperature increases. It doesn't bode well for the immediate future.

     
  14. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    segue into - is 10 years out still a viable bet when tracking future predictions?
    I track the 10 day weather forecast along with the home energy usage.
    Some 10 day forecasts are spot on, others change multiple times per 10 days, per couple of days, multiple times per day.
    Is there a point?
    Not that I'd have the slightest clue, oh hell anyways, will quantum computers lead to more intelligent humans or less intelligent humans. Or will it be pretty much the same intelligence with a new toy to play with.
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    You might find someone to bet against. Claim +0.2 oC per decade and nearby numbers. Offer your opponent +0.1 oC and everything lower.

    Earth decadal surface T is on a consistent line since the 1974 to 1983 decade. So, you won't lose but good luck getting paid (others have not in the past).

    ==
    For weather prediction 10 days out. I suggest better computers are not the need. Rather, satellites showing mass, temperature and energy status of atmosphere at finer than current scales. One km would be nice. Then one just solves a very large number of equations.
     
  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    How do those 10-day forecast compare to how well they can predict whether a week six months out will average warmer or cooler, wetter or drier, than this week? What is the likelihood of snow here that week compared to this week?
     
  17. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    Isn't the 6 month - 1 year forecast still the framers almanac area of expertise?
    Weekly forecasts are and have been pretty ubiquitous for a long time, I've never noticed many monthly forecasts ( but I don't track NOAA conditions, either ). Yearly are unheard of for me, and I wouldn't want to have to try running the numbers for them on accuracy percentage(s) for the year.
    Our utility offers a (daily average temperature for the month ) calculation for the billing month and the previous years corresponding month and I've never seen that calculation be more than 1° F different from a year prior same month,+ or - ...
    Yearly hurricane forecasting is still pretty difficult to get spot on. And the only forecast - weather wise - that even dare going out more than a year, that I've seen - are climate change predictors, and many of the those are starting to change now. I've already seen 3 or 4 different models changing for the - not so good outlook - with climate change, water quality, Atlantic s north to south oceanic river as well as glacial melt rates. And glacial melt rates have been being recalculated for several years already.
    Now. meteorologists are starting to hit that the northern Arctic is seeing the fastest rate of warming on the planet.

    Than there's Nostradamus. A good read for those that like to make predictions of future events, or so I've heard.
    Nostradamus - Wikipedia
     
    #2217 vvillovv, Jan 27, 2024
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2024
  18. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    While I prefer making predictions of past events, I'm still pretty sure, if I had to, I could make a confident prediction of how the likelihood of snow here this week compares to the likelihood of snow the last week of July. I could still be surprised, but I think it's a chance I would take.
     
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  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    That monthly consistency should be a clue why it is so specious to reference the (in)accuracy of 10-day forecasts when questioning 10-year climate projections.

    If we can 'predict' local monthly averages to less than a degree a year in advance, without any current observations and forecasting power at all, it should be clear that the much larger daily errors of the 10-day forecasts are not a factor in the longer term climate projections.
     
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  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Happy to read above, idea that high-latitude and high-altitude climate are changing fastest. It matters in many ways. I decline to comment on other musings posted.