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Environmental News

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Oct 22, 2015.

  1. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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    layering and vortices of both atmosphere and oceans are among the things that give captains, pilots, meteorologists and weather models frustrations and wildly deviant predictions.
    There are a lot of surface weather stations that measure wind speed, direction and temp.. But there are not all that many airborne weather stations to do the same at higher altitudes, where the wind direction, speed and temp could be wildly different at 1000, 2000, 3000, etc feet, than what's measured at the surface..
     
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  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Totally. Vortices at scales from Coriolis (1000s km) to as small as tech-feasible to explore (kms) is a (or the) predictability killer. Gets worse too, Smaller length scales imply smaller time scales. In addition to looking close comes the need to look fast.

    Which brings me to heh heh Starlink. Internet downlinking from thousands of LEO sats uses wavelengths that are pretty good for detecting motions of wisps of water vapor in atmosphere. I shall call them flags for atmos vorticity. What this large new and growing system does NOT DO is collect information on signal propagation delays. NOR does it deconvolute that information to 'visualize' atmos vorticity. Small small and fast fast.

    But it sorta could, I suspect, with a lot of processing that Starlinkers never thought to include. Very costly no doubt. But everybody else yonder has interests in improving weather prediction. Because money. With tens of thousands or Starlink birds pinging millions of meter-scale surface receivers, WX pred models (could) get orders of magnitude improvement without govts launching more of their sats. Later lacks this 'ground network', and thus would be much more complex designs.

    ==
    Some readers may already know that GPS signal timing variations are already deconvoluted to asses atmos moisture content. For many reasons this cannot be used for visualizing vorticity, small and fast.

    So there you have it. Leaping past current data sourcing for global WX modeling could be beginning right now but it is not. If you read anything about this anywhere else, I'd love to know because I thought it up by myself. I cannot claim it is tenable but I can claim that PriusChat readers get first look. Such a lucky gang.

    ==
    Musk intends Starlink as money source to colonize Mars. It is thus excusable to have not explored all that system might reveal.
     
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Readers may have never troubled themselves about accessible global databases of soil chemistry, soil microbiology, atmospheric N deposition, and others, and how those may influence how global forests manage carbon capture. How all those might change in future +T a little climates. And how all those might change how carbon moves around.

    Not your job eh. But I take it as mine, and I may not provide latest updates on Environmental, or don't complain enough about latest in Political. If you forgive me, it will be by supposing that I am working elsewhere.
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  6. vvillovv

    vvillovv Senior Member

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  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Mercury Hg is all over the dang place and very amenable to food-chain bio-concentration. Hg keeps popping up because microbes not harmed by it attach 'methyl' to it. Just because, I guess. No idea.

    Humans use Hg, because it does various things efficiently. Its bad efficiencies include damage to neuronal functions, and the bigger 'you' are, the more neuronal functions matter.

    ==

    More decades ago than I'd care to say, I first took canned tuna and worked it through to elemental analysis. Y'all ought not care. But the thing is that analytical tech for Hg has been highly sensitive for a long time. This is unlike other environmental chemical hazards for which tech has only recently become sensitive.
     
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  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Michael Mann (mentioned recently above) holds forth on category 6 hurricanes:

    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2322597121

    Which have been in science related media recently. Before 'entering the vortex' I'd commend to your attention the Carnot engine in Fig. 1. it's quite lovely to visualize in this way.But wait there's more! This is a vertical cross section through half the storm. Come along if you will and think of the entire thing as a donut. Crossing a warm ocean, directed by even larger atmospheric pressure patterns.

    Anyway, the point is well made that hurricane power dissipation scales as wind velocity cubed. So, the existing 5 categories ~linearly sliced are already misleading in terms of tearing one's roof off, or similar. But wind power delivery is not the entire story. It proceeds inland an intermediate distance (details follow). Coastal storm surge proceeds inland the least, and has as much to do with near coastal seafloor topography as do details of the storm. Heavy rainfall (flood risks) proceeds inland the most. I think of it as sublinear to wind speed, but there is a lot of 'personality' to individual storms.

    So I would instead set aside the whole 1 to 5 thing, and not apply an incomplete fix by adding 6.

    Here comes a hurricane, 7 days out. Its wind and water risks can be known and localized with some accuracy. We understand visual representations, color coded, and internet is good (enough) at displaying that. so forget 1 to 5 or 6 and simply show risk maps.

    Here comes a hurricane, 3 days out. More accurate risk maps can be then drawn. Three days is about the last chance for prep or evac' certainly one day is too little.

    But the point is to transition to updating risk maps and stop counting fingers.
     
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    One might think that species of snakes are now well known. They are big enough to see, interestingly icky, odd in terms of locomotion, and famous for offering forbidden knowledge (possibly apocryphal).

    But no. Five new species have been found:

    Five dazzling new species of eyelash vipers d | EurekAlert!

    Eyelash vipers are pretty fancy, as you can read in the above.

    If expanding taxonomy of macrobiota is not your thing, just remember this: do not reach for a tree or branch with presumption it is not occupied. Check visual first.

    ==
    I was out with 'the kids' in tropical forest and gave a similar sermon. They asked "what about at night?"

    At night you rely on luck. Nothing more.
     
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  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Earth orbiting debris won't make big news until the next collision, But it is worth knowing about trackers of such. Here's another:

    Jonathan's Space Report | Space Statistics

    A fine webpage overall, by someone with a productive hobby ;)
     
  12. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    not even counting the sort of rear-wheel-drive arrangement Milton imagined for them before the Fall made them locomote as they now do ....
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Tallest mtn near Los Angeles is Mt Baldy / Mount San Antonio. Trails are busy in summer (I went many yrs ago) and most goers do not die. Winter attempts are more often fatal. Most recently a gang of 6 was heli rescued quite far below summit:

    https://ktla.com/news/local-news/6-trapped-hikers-airlifted-off-mt-baldy/

    Which I hope they paid for.

    It is snowy this winter. Local groups associated with rescue or body-bagging efforts have asked people not to try. And yet …

    Scenic enticements unwisely linked:

    https://hikingguy.com/hiking-trails/los-angeles-hikes/mt-baldy-hike/

    In summer ascents and top camping (which is really fun), it will be learned that many mice live up there. Unclear how much they are supported by hiker food, but tall mtns often have mice feeding on insects that get blown up there and cannot oxygenate. Finally I arrive at the ecology of this post. At Baldy elev there is 70% of sea level O2. Local mice have ‘bred for that’ for generations. Non local blown-in insects have not. Yum.

    Lastly, all the mice topside are now hibernating. Come spring, they will make pups in anticipation of summer’s bounties.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Satellite re entry

    Euro Space Agency ERS-2 functioned from 1995 to 2011, when it was lowered to 573 km, and then passivated. The idea was that increasing drag would later initiate re entry. This is how things were done in 2011. It could plunk down anywhere and they knew it. About 2200 kilograms, most to become sparkles and with maybe a few chunks.

    These days, if a large thing has unscheduled re entry, people get angry. Reasonable, but the risk on ground does not vary with the flag painted on it. So, if you find little mention of it in news, I dun no why

    ESA current prediction +/- 11.5 hrs. That range is still 15 orbits, so no 'targets' are truly off the map.

    ERS-2 reentry – live updates – Rocket Science

    Center of that is east of but close to an island called Amami Oshima, NE of Okinawa.

    I would normally expect more attention paid by

    ERS 2 (ID 23560) | The Aerospace Corporation

    but they have not updated their prediction since +/- 25 hrs, for a completely different location.

    2024 Feb 21, 15:42 UTC is 36 hrs after now. ERS 2 is now about 220 km up (got through the 'starlink zone' without a bump). At 150 km, things will get frisky.

    ==
    Another ESA page

    ERS-2 reentry – homepage – Rocket Science

    tells that reducing orbit from 785 to 573 kn was to reduce collision risk. It was news to me that 785 has higher population density of stuff. Somebody ought be reviewing these things for the interested public.

    ==
    Finally, until further notice, 71% chance of ocean plop. Oceans are big.
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Predictions of ERS-2 where? have tightened to within 3 orbits by ESA and Aerospace. Links above are updated. About 12 hrs to go. I admit I do not understand how those two sources can be so close with time estimates but so different in place estimates. Oh well.

    If one looks at Aerospace, there remain few interesting America, Euro and Afrique locations that might see re entry. Most of Asia could not. So, not me.

    ==
    Absent other time constraints, I might explore other ton to multi-ton inactive items are below 600 km and heading for their own demises. Instead I assume Aerospace has a handle on them.

    Separately it may be known here that Starlink is currently ditching many of their early birds. We are informed that those re entries will actually be 'aimed' towards the South Pacific E of Tahiti, agreed to be good spot for down goers. ERS-2 might finish there. The previous large down goer from China did, but that was a lucky accident.
     
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  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    We are now past the center of both above windows above (+/- 5 and +/- 0.55 hrs). Another 'tracking' site:

    ERS 2 Satellite details 1995-021A NORAD 23560

    ... shows it having dropped to 124 km, from 157-162 km when I was up with insomnia 3.5 hours ago. But I don't how much of this site's info is real vs some stale forecast. Part of that difference is the different sides of the elliptical orbit, but the apogee-perigee difference is much less than total drop in that time.
     
  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Still in the air by the site I posted above, low flying past New Zealand at just 117 km, whereas the other sites say it should have been swimming an hour or so ago.

    With no visuals or confirmation of anything, I'll go with majority vote.
     
  18. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    ESA's feed on the website still using the twitter.com domain:

    "We have confirmation of the atmospheric reentry of ERS-2 at 17:17 UTC (18:17 CET) +/- 1 minute over the North Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Hawaii."

    Meanwhile, nearly 4 hours later, the http://www.n2yo.com site I found is still forecasting it as flying 100 km above the south Pacific, south of Australia.
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I have also read other reports of re entry "between Hawaii and Alaska" at that time. So, sleeping with the fishes. It's pretty messy in that part N Pacific right now (by windy.com) so I suppose no eyeballs were around to see it.

    Various primary sources about re entries had long 'refresh times' on this one, maybe worse than we have seen for recent others. After a news worthy hit, they will try harder I guess.

    ==Starlink is presently de orbiting many of its early fleet. I think there is capability to aim those at the 'special place' in S. Pacific. So the news worthy chunk will be something else.

    ==
    Get some sleep bucko. I know from recent experience that 70 hrs without messes one up.