Mortality from extreme cold and heat

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, May 22, 2015.

  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    wow. heat seems to be the killer, but there are probably more homes with reliable heat than a/c.
     
  2. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Two factors of critical importance here:
    1) You can mitigate cold with insulation, shelter, other humans, and fire. Even a very young kid knows how to get warm.
    2) There are very few ways to mitigate heat. All of them require water or lots of electricity. Without those, only inaction in the shade becomes the last option...and you still need lots of water. Few kids are trained for inaction (unlike a lot of adults who seem to have it mastered).
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Not as sexy as people getting dependant on a government that goes on vacation and leaves them to die (France, Russia) news paper dealths but.OP study as mentioned in LA times.

    Cold weather is much deadlier than extreme heat, study says - LA Times
    That is 5.4 million due to cold, 0.3 million to heat. This is one of the headlines but most of the time when thousands die from cold it just isn't news.
    Deaths from cold 'to hit 2,500' | Daily Mail Online
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I appreciate that our species has adapted hunter/gathers from the Arctic circle to the tip of South America. Industrialized, we have lived nearly pole-to-pole. But today our populations are dependent upon a few domesticated flora and fauna who may have had environmental tolerance breed out of them. Commercial turkeys come to mind as does Lysenkoism, a 1930s Soviet attempt to adapt wheat to grow in Siberia. A few crop failures and we'll be back in the 1950s and before when famine was in the news.

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Crops with narrow environmental ranges , or limited disease / herbivore resistance, represent a tradeoff willingly made for proximate yield

    In a static world there would be no down side. But this is not a static world. There are an amazing array of seed-storage programs world wide. One at this very botanical garden. I have visited the -20 oC room, but not for long!

    All of those constitute insurance policies for agricultural success in this non-static world. I think John Q. Citizen would be amazed at the effort. Maybe even John Q. PC-er.

    But some crops (and economic forestry species) have very little 'genetic breadth' in storage. Those are problematical. Most crop plants could be 'patched up'. at need.

    That is the biological side. We also have a persistent need for adequate soils and climates to co-occur, in places with mechanized infrastructure. So far, it's workin'.

    But I want to see these insurance policies to continue to improve. So, there is a money thing. Any congressperson who cannot tell me 5 things about Arabidopsis thaliana without a wikipedia visit should not be involved in science-funding decisions.

    OK that's harsh but dangit! The 'scientists are elitists who hate you but want your money' thing neatly erases a (rather scary) reality that we are going out on a limb. Seems a bit odd to attack the only folks involved in limb-strengthening.

    'Nuff chatter
     
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i sometimes wonder what would happen if we went to the supermarket, and there was no food.
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    [​IMG]
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    Bob Wilson
     
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  8. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    In a dynamic world warmer is better for crops than colder. Both cause stress, but warmer is much easier.

    In a warmer and higher carbon dixide world water and fertilizer become the limititng factors. Cross breeding (artificial selection) and direct genetic modification (gmo) Here is a study of creating drought resistant corn.
    Cross-bred crops get fit faster : Nature News & Comment

    Hostile environment, an aquaponic greenhouse may be the solution for the future.
    Aquaponic farming saves water, but can it feed the country?

    Perhaps a shift away from those crops. In a hot dry world rice might need to be cut back, but other crops can substitute. Scientists have salt water grown potatoes, and maybe as little ice age farmers used windmills to drain fields, future warm area farmers can use wind turbine electricity to irrigate fields of spuds with sea water.
    Humble spud poised to launch a world food revolution | Science | The Guardian


    lol. Greedy science for seeds, probably at monanto, but most of these agricultural types want to help feed the world with more people and a changing climate. We are not likely to have the massive crop failures they had during the little ice age.

    The story is not so happy for the wild types though. Plenty of food and more people and bigger farms mean more forests cut down, and smaller habitats. Add climte change which would have spiecies migrate, but can't because there are towns and farms in the way, and it looks like extinctions will go up.
     
  10. bisco

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    they are also trying to patent seeds and keep small farmers from having access to them. but that's probably not the scientists.
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    This new publication is about PM 2.5 and ozone, not heat or cold. It says present (2010) mortality therefrom and projects to 2050. With global maps:

    J. Lelieveld, J. S. Evans, M. Fnais, D. Giannadaki & A. Pozzer (2015) The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Nature 525: 367-371. doi:10.1038/nature15371

    The issue of indoor air remains difficult, where cooking and heating fires are poorly ventilated. I suppose that would mostly make the India color code more dramatic.

    Can post their Figure 1 if y'all can't be bothered to update your own knowledge. The only surprise there is areas of Europe where these inhalables remain 'a thing'.

    I assume there will be no more congressional testimony suggesting that there is no link between combustion by products and human health. That will be a breath of fresh air.
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    In addition, my eyes see:
    • Paris
    • London
    • Moscow
    • Chiro
    • Israel or Gaza(?)
    Bob Wilson