If the repair costs were the same whether you had a warranty or or not, you would be correct. but they aren't A dealer or other repair shop has a much harder time scamming the issuer of the service policy with overcharges and unnecessary work than they do scamming the individual paying for their own repairs.
That is assuming the car breaks. My 2000 4Runner went over over 200,000 miles before it need a repair that would be covered by a warrenty. My Prius now has 30,000 miles and zero repairs. I would bet alot of money I will see zereo repairs for another 100,000+ miles. I think people forget how reliable Toyota's are.