SpaceX has reduced the cost to orbit by a bunch, at least 2x. Internally, I suspect the cost reduction per payload pound is +3x. So unlike the 'honorable competition', the SpaceX, low earth orbit is exceptionally affordable. If others wish to enter this market, they better start booking SpaceX launches. Bob Wilson
Yep. I'm old enough to remember the phrase "If it ain't Boeing, I ain't going." Now? That sentiment has been truncated somewhat. Still..... Elon's "honorable competition" right now is mostly dot.gov. and you can swim with a concrete bathing suit and lap those guys! I'm guessing that LEO bucks per ton is going to get cheaper and cheaper once some of our near-peer competitors get into the game and if history is any guide then the i-launcher will face increasing competition for a period of time until it too has to offer an SE model that is "good nuff" and price competitive. Next thing you know we'll be booking getaway tours at the Artemis Hilton at great Memorial Day prices and wishing we could afford that luxuary trip to Olympus Mons Well....not US. I'll be at my final duty station by then.....
Not intending to add things for readers to worry about. But it is interesting to note that meteoric infall (rocks) is about 50 tons per day, and infall from increased orbital satellites (mostly aluminum) may increase to 2 tons per day. Air pollution from reentering megaconstellation satellites could cause ozone hole 2.0 | Space https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-89909-7?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100052171&utm_content=deeplink == Rocks from out yonder contain not much aluminum, but earth crustal rocks do. This is why we have aerospace and beer cans, following invention of electrical refining. But the 'teach' here is that earth crust has minerals that did not sink to the core, back when that happened. Al minerals are among the floaters.
Militarily targeting starlink Chinese Researchers Publish Strategy to Destroy Elon Musk's Starlink This sounds most unwise.
Kinetically, it sounds most undoable…not to mention an act of war. They could probably do some social engineering and go for a soft kill which is probably their preferred method of dealing with the free exchange of information without an edit. Besides…..they just have to keep their subjects from using it - something that’s medium easy to do in town.
It's that time again ... The second part of Chinese space station has been launched. The particular rocket used for this is unusual in that its core (first) stage goes into orbit .. and falls back out after weeks or months. That is about 20 tons empty of fuel and without capability for aimed re entry. That is a big thing for uncontrolled re entry nowadays. It has just now made the watch list: https://aerospace.org/reentries?field_reentry_type_target_id%5B%5D=33&field_reentry_sighting_value=All&sort_by=field_predicted_reentry_time_value&sort_order=DESC&format_select=tiles&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC They are currently predicting July 31 re entry but +/- a lot. Typically their re entry predictions tighten up over time. So watch that space.
meh. I don't buy lottery tickets for the same reason..... @ "unusual': Second "laugh out loud" this month. Normally, I'd make a rude comment about the Chicomms and their cavalier attitude for tumblers, but it wasn't so long ago that we Americans really didn't sweat about dynamically de-orbit the big stuff. 2.2 tonnes? Who came up with THAT SWAG?
I seem to recall that this is the upper limit for de-orbiting without a 'plan.' I might be miss-remembering that, since I fix phones for a living....... I'm sure that somebody will.....ah....."weigh in."
OK thanks. I do not know which rocket bodies have downward thrusters to aim them when de orbiting time comes. CZ-5B does not, and because of media coverage I presume it is the largest thing that does not.
This may be the most efficient page to watch: https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rb-id-53240 and links there provide some background info. For completeness on topic, another launch like this one will happen before end of year. Bringing third and final segment to this station. And resulting in another down goer. Unmanned launches (only) happen from Wenchang in Hainan. It is uniquely in China the place where civilians (you'll need a visa ) can watch the show. Hotels rooftops and a beach 8 km from the launch site allow viewing.
Re entry prediction by Aerospace.org has tightened up to 30 Jul 2022 18:16 UTC ± 5 hours Ten hrs overall means about 7 orbits which further means there is a lot of area where it cannot come down. Assuming Aerospace.org is correct. Remaining target areas can be seen in link in #32.
Re entry point has been reported at 119 East, 9.1 North. This is in the South China Sea, on the Philippines side. No report of chunks on land seem to have appeared.
Not orbital debris but from much further out there: An Interstellar Meteor Struck the Earth in 2014, and now Scientists Want to Search for it at the Bottom of the Ocean - Universe Today This is a very interesting project that will collect a lot of magnetic material from a 1.7 km deep sea bed. The collection may include desired object. I am not much convinced that anything 'interstellar' can be learned after 8 years in seawater. I do not argue against trying. They will also collect degraded solar system meteors unavoidably, and things could be learned from analyzing them. I see it as a glittery project with possibility of collateral benefits.
Another down goer Retired NASA satellite expected to fall to Earth on Sunday https://aerospace.org/reentries/erbs-id-15354 Launched 1984 before controlling such trash was considered a thing, and <3 tons so not attaining the level of interest in 22 tons of more recent thoughtless re entries from a large Asian country you have heard about. But down ERBS will go, and most likely as always into its final ocean home.
